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基于目前计票的预测 · 组阁谈判追踪

模拟组建联合政府

点击选票即可添加内阁伙伴； 61 的 120 个席位占多数。

跳至结果

基于目前计票的预测 · 估计 · 已保存快照

03:45 更新 · 检查时间: 10月28日, 03:45 以色列时间

来源

一次完整的120席分配，不确定性区间另列。

或者加载命名排列

涉及的红线

各阵营达到61席还需要什么

  • 内塔尼亚胡阵营 53：还差 8 席
  • 反内塔尼亚胡阵营（犹太复国主义政党） 51：还差 10 席
  • 联合名单与拉阿姆党 16：还差 45 席

达到61席的组合

  • 内塔尼亚胡阵营 53 + 反内塔尼亚胡阵营（犹太复国主义政党） 51 = 104. 已记录的反对承诺： 贝内特（仅限犹太复国主义政党） (Times of Israel, Apr 26 and May 27, 2026); 利伯曼（不含阿拉伯或极端正统派政党） (Jerusalem Post, Sep 21, 2025; repeated Oct 3, 2026); 艾森科特（不与内塔尼亚胡合作） (Times of Israel, Sep 17, 2026; Zman Yisrael, Oct 6, 2026); 贝内特（不与内塔尼亚胡合作） (Ynet (Hebrew), Jul 3, 2026; Times of Israel, Feb 17, 2026); 戈兰（不含利库德集团、宗教犹太复国主义或犹太力量党） (Ynet, Aug 23, 2026); 戈兰（政府中不含极端正统派政党） (Times of Israel, May 27, 2026); 利伯曼（不与内塔尼亚胡合作） (Liberman on X, as reported by JFeed, Sep 17, 2026; Jerusalem Post, May 6, 2026); 本-格维尔（不与艾森科特合作） (Jerusalem Post, Aug 29, 2026).
  • 内塔尼亚胡阵营 53 + 联合名单与拉阿姆党 16 = 69. 已记录的反对承诺： 联合名单（不加入内塔尼亚胡） (Times of Israel, Aug 19, 2026; Haaretz, Oct 6, 2026); 斯莫特里奇（不含阿拉伯政党） (Jerusalem Post, Aug 18, 2026; Times of Israel, May 5, 2026); 本-格维尔（不含拉阿姆党） (Jerusalem Post, Sep 9, 2026).
  • 反内塔尼亚胡阵营（犹太复国主义政党） 51 + 联合名单与拉阿姆党 16 = 67. 已记录的反对承诺： 艾森科特（不含拉阿姆党） (Times of Israel, Sep 26, 2026); 贝内特（仅限犹太复国主义政党） (Times of Israel, Apr 26 and May 27, 2026); 利伯曼（不含阿拉伯或极端正统派政党） (Jerusalem Post, Sep 21, 2025; repeated Oct 3, 2026).

仅为算术和已记录的承诺。这不是预测，也不声称存在任何协议。

还没有聚会查看安排

名单，按集团

内塔尼亚胡阵营

反内塔尼亚胡阵营（犹太复国主义政党）

集团之间

联合名单与拉阿姆党

打印或导出此安排

来源87显示隐藏
  1. 竞选期间的来源 77
    1. 马里夫 / 拉扎尔 已发布 2026/10/2, 实地考察: Sep 30–Oct 1, 2026, Jerusalem Post: jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-910396
    2. 通道13 已发布 2026/10/1; 示例：1013, Times of Israel liveblog. Reservists–Economic polled below the threshold.
    3. 兹曼·以色列 / 塔蒂卡 已发布 2026/10/1; 示例：500; 误差范围: ±4.4
    4. 坎11 已发布 2026/9/28, Jerusalem Post: jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-909918. Kan did not report Shas or UTJ separately. The listed parties add up to 106, so Shas and UTJ together hold 14 (our arithmetic: 120 − 106).
    5. 通道14 / 下一个数据/光纤 已发布 2026/10/1, skarim.org. Sep 23 and Sep 28 polls also cited; figures marked date-uncertain are the latest in our register without a date.
    6. 坎11 / 坎塔尔 已发布 2026/9/6, 实地考察: Sep 6, 2026; 示例：551, Kan 11: kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/1096840/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    7. 通道14 / SF+ND 已发布 2026/9/7, 实地考察: Sep 7, 2026; 示例：1057, Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1693697. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    8. 通道12 / 米德加姆研发中心 已发布 2026/9/7, 实地考察: Sep 7, 2026; 示例：503, Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-067c7eb8e9c70a1026.htm. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    9. 马里夫 / LRI+P4A 已发布 2026/9/8, 实地考察: Sep 7–8, 2026; 示例：600, The Jerusalem Post: jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-907949. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    10. 通道13 / MP+TM+SN+A 已发布 2026/9/9, 实地考察: Sep 9, 2026; 示例：1119, Channel 13: 13tv.co.il/item/news/politics/politics/z10wm-905351997/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    11. 我24新闻 / 直接民意调查 已发布 2026/9/9, 实地考察: Sep 9, 2026; 示例：1054, i24NEWS: i24news.tv/he/news/israel-elections-2026/polls/artc-a92f58d0. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    12. 通道14 / SF+ND 已发布 2026/9/9, 实地考察: Sep 9, 2026; 示例：537, Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1697000. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    13. 瓦拉 / LRI+P4A 已发布 2026/9/9, 实地考察: Sep 9, 2026; 示例：506. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    14. 坎11 / 坎塔尔 已发布 2026/9/9, 实地考察: Sep 9, 2026; 示例：554, Kan 11: kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/1098105/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    15. 通道12 / 米德加姆研发中心 已发布 2026/9/9, 实地考察: Sep 9, 2026; 示例：504, Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-c27dc00e8c680a1026.htm. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    16. 马里夫 / LRI+P4A 已发布 2026/9/11, 实地考察: Sep 9–10, 2026; 示例：601, Maariv: maariv.co.il/news/politics/article-1365318. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    17. 兹曼·以色列 / 约西·塔蒂卡 已发布 2026/9/11, 实地考察: Sep 9–10, 2026; 示例：500, Zman Yisrael: zman.co.il/723041/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    18. 坎11 / 坎塔尔 已发布 2026/9/14, 实地考察: Sep 14, 2026, Kan 11: kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/1099439/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    19. 通道14 / SF+ND 已发布 2026/9/15, 实地考察: Sep 15, 2026; 示例：483, Haredim 10: ch10.co.il/en/news/1101859/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    20. 通道12 / 米德加姆研发中心 已发布 2026/9/15, 实地考察: Sep 14, 2026, Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-16f5b846bd3a0a1026.htm. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    21. 通道13 / MP+TM+SN+A 已发布 2026/9/16, 实地考察: Sep 15, 2026; 示例：886, Channel 13: 13tv.co.il/item/news/politics/politics/uo4p5-905360485/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    22. 通道14 / SF+ND 已发布 2026/9/17, 实地考察: Sep 17, 2026; 示例：817, Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1706627. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    23. 我24新闻 / 直接民意调查 已发布 2026/9/17, 实地考察: Sep 17, 2026; 示例：519, i24NEWS: i24news.tv/he/news/israel-elections-2026/polls/artc-5b0e5baa. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    24. 伊斯雷尔·哈约姆 / 坎塔尔 已发布 2026/9/17, 实地考察: Sep 16–17, 2026; 示例：551, Israel Hayom: israelhayom.co.il/news/politics/article/21444759. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    25. 兹曼·以色列 / 约西·塔蒂卡 已发布 2026/9/17, 实地考察: Sep 16–17, 2026; 示例：500, Zman Yisrael: zman.co.il/725468//. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    26. 马里夫 / LRI+P4A 已发布 2026/9/18, 实地考察: Sep 16–17, 2026; 示例：600, Maariv: maariv.co.il/news/politics/article-1368599. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    27. 通道12 / 米德加姆研发中心 已发布 2026/9/22, 实地考察: Sep 22, 2026; 示例：501, Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-fad59e819c9c0a1027.htm. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    28. 通道14 / SF+ND 已发布 2026/9/23, 实地考察: Sep 23, 2026; 示例：647, Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1711606. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    29. 通道13 / MP+TM+SN+A 已发布 2026/9/23, 实地考察: Sep 23, 2026; 示例：1503, Channel 13: 13tv.co.il/item/news/politics/politics/hcp4l-905367553/?pid=98577. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    30. 我24新闻 / 直接民意调查 已发布 2026/9/24, 实地考察: Sep 24, 2026; 示例：537, i24NEWS: i24news.tv/he/news/israel-elections-2026/polls/artc-5d1d4577. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    31. 兹曼·以色列 / 约西·塔蒂卡 已发布 2026/9/25, 实地考察: Sep 23–24, 2026; 示例：500, The Times of Israel: timesofisrael.com/netanyahus-coalition-and-rival-change-bloc-draw-level-in-latest-toi-poll/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    32. 马里夫 / LRI+P4A 已发布 2026/9/25, 实地考察: Sep 23–24, 2026; 示例：610, The Jerusalem Post: jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-909659. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    33. 我24新闻 / 直接民意调查 已发布 2026/10/2, 实地考察: Oct 1, 2026; 示例：504, Haredim 10: ch10.co.il/en/news/1105029/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    34. 坎11 / 坎塔尔 已发布 2026/10/4, 实地考察: Oct 4, 2026; 示例：553, Kan 11: kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/1105927/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378604815).
    35. 通道12 / 米德加姆研发中心 已发布 2026/10/5, 实地考察: Oct 5, 2026, Arutz Sheva: israelnationalnews.com/news/434161. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378756845).
    36. 通道14 / SF+ND 已发布 2026/10/7, 实地考察: Oct 7, 2026; 示例：2175, Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1728516. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1379241507).
    37. 通道13 / MP+TM+SN+A 已发布 2026/10/7, 实地考察: Oct 7, 2026; 示例：1013, Channel 13: 13tv.co.il/item/news/politics/politics/survey-905386103/?pid=985778. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1379241507).
    38. 伊斯雷尔·哈约姆 / 坎塔尔 已发布 2026/10/8, 实地考察: Oct 7–8, 2026; 示例：555, Israel Hayom: israelhayom.co.il/news/politics/article/21444759. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1379241507).
    39. 兹曼·以色列 / 约西·塔蒂卡 已发布 2026/10/8, 实地考察: Oct 7–8, 2026; 示例：500, Zman Yisrael: zman.co.il/731622/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1379386113).
    40. 我24新闻 / 直接民意调查 已发布 2026/10/8, 实地考察: Oct 7, 2026; 示例：504, i24 News: i24news.tv/he/news/israel-elections-2026/polls/artc-fa0f56f4. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1379386113).
    41. 马里夫 / LRI+P4A 已发布 2026/10/9, 实地考察: Oct 7–8, 2026; 示例：700, Maariv: maariv.co.il/news/politics/article-1375198. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1379386113).
    42. 通道14 / SF+ND 已发布 2026/10/12, 实地考察: Oct 12, 2026; 示例：538, Haredim10: ch10.co.il/en/news/1107207/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1379952737).
    43. 坎11 / 坎塔尔 已发布 2026/10/11, 实地考察: Oct 11, 2026; 示例：553, Kan 11: kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/1108256/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1380109781).
    44. 瓦拉 / LRI+P4A 已发布 2026/10/12, 实地考察: Oct 12, 2026; 示例：601, Walla: walla.co.il/news/politics/383957251. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381389461).
    45. 通道12 / 米德加姆研发中心 已发布 2026/10/12, 实地考察: Oct 12, 2026; 示例：509, Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-cc91389788031a1026.htm. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381389461).
    46. 通道13 / MP+TM+SN+A 已发布 2026/10/14, 实地考察: Oct 14, 2026; 示例：1018, Channel 13: 13tv.co.il/item/news/politics/politics/survey-905396904/?pid=106628. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381389461).
    47. 兹曼·以色列 / 约西·塔蒂卡 已发布 2026/10/15, 实地考察: Oct 14–15, 2026; 示例：500, The Times of Israel: timesofisrael.com/toi-poll-eisenkot-opens-up-big-lead-on-netanyahu-but-both-blocs-short-of-majority/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381389461).
    48. 马里夫 / LRI+P4A 已发布 2026/10/16, 实地考察: Oct 14–15, 2026; 示例：700, The Jerusalem Post: jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-911902. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381389461).
    49. 坎11 / 坎塔尔 已发布 2026/10/18, 实地考察: Oct 18, 2026; 示例：554, Kan 11: kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/1110393/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381389461).
    50. 通道13 / MP+TM+SN+A 已发布 2026/10/19, 实地考察: Oct 19, 2026; 示例：1016, Channel 13: 13tv.co.il/item/news/politics/politics/jw3wm-905406894/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381389461).
    51. 通道12 / 米德加姆研发中心 已发布 2026/10/19, 实地考察: Oct 19, 2026; 示例：507, Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-a6eb664b9d451a1026.htm. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381389461).
    52. 通道14 / SF+ND 已发布 2026/10/20, 实地考察: Oct 20, 2026; 示例：2116, Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1746819. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381389461).
    53. 我24新闻 / 直接民意调查 已发布 2026/10/13, 实地考察: Oct 13, 2026; 示例：1210, i24 News: i24news.tv/he/news/israel-elections-2026/polls/artc-b9e16632. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381477545).
    54. 我24新闻 / 直接民意调查 已发布 2026/10/18, 实地考察: Oct 18, 2026; 示例：525, i24 News: i24news.tv/he/news/israel-elections-2026/polls/artc-81805. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381477545).
    55. 我24新闻 / 直接民意调查 已发布 2026/10/20, 实地考察: Oct 20, 2026; 示例：521, i24 News: i24news.tv/he/news/israel-elections-2026/polls/artc-91da6024. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381477545).
    56. 瓦拉 / LRI+P4A 已发布 2026/10/20, 实地考察: Oct 19, 2026; 示例：601, Walla: walla.co.il/news/politics/383958175. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381477545). Amcha Yisrael 2.9% (below the threshold) added by hand from the Wikipedia row, 2026-10-23; the import had dropped it.
    57. 通道13 / MP+TM+SN+A 已发布 2026/10/21, 实地考察: Oct 21, 2026; 示例：1084, Channel 13: 13tv.co.il/item/news/politics/politics/ksgoq-905411865/?pid=106628/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381477545).
    58. 通道12 / 米德加姆研发中心 已发布 2026/10/21, 实地考察: Oct 21, 2026; 示例：505, Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-bf175ad340f51a1027.htm. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381477545).
    59. 通道14 / SF+ND 已发布 2026/10/21, 实地考察: Oct 21, 2026; 示例：1954, Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1748686. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381477545).
    60. 通道14 / SF+ND 已发布 2026/10/22, 实地考察: Oct 22, 2026; 示例：7937, Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1750553. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381477545).
    61. 兹曼·以色列 / 约西·塔蒂卡 已发布 2026/10/22, 实地考察: Oct 21–22, 2026; 示例：500, Zman Yisrael: zman.co.il/735649/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381477545).
    62. 马里夫 / LRI+P4A 已发布 2026/10/22, 实地考察: Oct 19–22, 2026; 示例：1048, Maariv: maariv.co.il/news/elections-2026/article-1380289. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381577859).
    63. 伊斯雷尔·哈约姆 / 坎塔尔 已发布 2026/10/22, 实地考察: Oct 22, 2026, Israel Hayom: israelhayom.co.il/news/politics/article/21694000. Entered by hand 2026-10-24 from Israel Hayom's publication of Oct 23 (fieldwork Oct 22) as listed on Wikipedia's polling page and in ice.co.il's report (https://www.ice.co.il/research/news/article/1134739); no sample size published. Amcha Yisrael not reported.
    64. 坎11 / 坎塔尔 已发布 2026/10/23, 实地考察: Oct 23, 2026; 示例：1006, Kan 11: zman.co.il/live/735892/. The final Kan 11 poll (Kantar), published Friday Oct 23 before the blackout; entered by hand 2026-10-24 from Zman Yisrael's live report, ynet's roundup (https://www.ynet.co.il/news/elections2026/article/hy500sxt2mx; sample 1,006, margin 3%, Amcha Yisrael 2.9%) and Haaretz's live blog (sample given there as 1,106; its Democrats figure of 9 makes 121 seats and is a transcription error: Kan's table has 8, and the Eisenkot bloc total of 52 that every source reports requires it). Not yet on Wikipedia.
    65. 通道12 / 米德加姆研发中心 已发布 2026/10/23, 实地考察: Oct 22–23, 2026; 示例：1018, Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-8ea5e45ec2961a1027.htm. The final Channel 12 poll (Midgam with iPanel), published Friday Oct 23 before the blackout; entered by hand 2026-10-24 from Channel 12's own report (1,018 respondents, margin 4.4%; Haredi Public 0.5%, Noam 0.5%). Not yet on Wikipedia.
    66. 通道13 / MP+TM+SN+A 已发布 2026/10/23, 实地考察: Oct 23, 2026; 示例：1875, Channel 13: zman.co.il/live/735899/. The final Channel 13 poll (the HaMadad consortium), published Friday Oct 23 before the blackout; entered by hand 2026-10-24 from Zman Yisrael's live report and ynet's roundup (https://www.ynet.co.il/news/elections2026/article/hy500sxt2mx; 1,875 respondents, margin 2.3%; Haredi Public 1.3%). Haaretz's live blog gives the sample as 1,084. Not yet on Wikipedia.
    67. 坎11 退出民调 已发布 2026/10/27, 实地考察: Oct 27, 2026, Times of Israel liveblog: timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-27-2026/. Kan 11 exit poll, first version at the close of polls (Times of Israel liveblog entry 22:09). Reservists–Economic and Amcha Yisrael below the threshold. Kan says it will update the poll every 30 minutes; later versions are separate rows. Entered by hand.
    68. 通道13 退出民调 已发布 2026/10/27, 实地考察: Oct 27, 2026, JNS; Haaretz live blog: jns.org/israeli-election-exit-polls. Channel 13 exit poll, first version at the close of polls (Times of Israel liveblog entry 22:06). JNS and Haaretz agree on every party; blocs 50/53/17 match the Times of Israel liveblog (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-27-2026/). Reservists–Economic and Amcha Yisrael below the threshold. Entered by hand.
    69. 通道12 退出民调 已发布 2026/10/27, 实地考察: Oct 27, 2026, JNS: jns.org/israeli-election-exit-polls. Channel 12 exit poll, first version at the close of polls (Times of Israel liveblog entry 22:03). Party figures from JNS; they match the Times of Israel liveblog figures for Likud 24, Yashar 22, B’Yachad 12 and the Joint List 11 and its blocs 50/52/18. Haaretz’s live blog gives Yisrael Beytenu 7, Shas 6 and UTJ 7, which make 117 seats and contradict its own bloc totals; JNS’s figures are used. Reservists–Economic and Amcha Yisrael below the threshold. Entered by hand.
    70. 通道12 退出民调 已发布 2026/10/27, 实地考察: Oct 27, 2026, Times of Israel liveblog: timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-27-2026/. Channel 12 exit poll, updated version (Times of Israel liveblog entry 22:44): Democrats 9 to 10, Yisrael Beytenu 9 to 8, every other list as in the first version (from JNS); blocs unchanged at 50 and 52, matching the liveblog. Entered by hand.
    71. 通道12 退出民调 已发布 2026/10/27, 实地考察: Oct 27, 2026, Times of Israel liveblog; ynet news flashes: timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-27-2026/. Channel 12 exit poll, third version (Times of Israel liveblog entry 02:17): Likud 24 to 27, Yashar 22 to 21, Joint List 11 to 12, Democrats 10 to 9, Shas 8 to 7, Yisrael Beiteinu 8 to 7; every other list unchanged from the 22:44 version. Sums to 120; blocs 52/49/19 as reported by the Times of Israel and ynet. Entered by hand.
    72. 通道14 退出民调 已发布 2026/10/27, 实地考察: Oct 27, 2026, JNS: jns.org/israeli-election-exit-polls. Channel 14 exit poll, at the close of polls (in the Times of Israel liveblog roundup at 22:44; air time not stated). Party figures from JNS; they sum to 120 and give the Netanyahu bloc 60, opposition 43 and Arab lists 17, as the Times of Israel reports. ynet gives Religious Zionism 9 and UTJ 9, which make 124; JNS is used. Reservists–Economic and Amcha Yisrael below the threshold (Times of Israel, ynet). Shown apart from the other channels and not in the forecast. Entered by hand.
    73. 我24新闻 退出民调 已发布 2026/10/27, 实地考察: Oct 27, 2026, i24NEWS: i24news.tv/en/news/israeli-elections/artc-i24news-exit-poll-likud-wins-27-seats-yashar-20-coalition-bloc-reaches-55-seats-opposition-49-and-arab-parties-16. i24NEWS exit poll at the close of polls (air time not stated; in the Times of Israel liveblog roundup at 23:58). Party figures from i24NEWS; they sum to 120 and give the Netanyahu bloc 55, the opposition 49 and the Arab lists 16, as i24NEWS and the Times of Israel both report. Ofer Winter's Reservists–Economic list below the threshold (i24NEWS). Shown apart from the other channels and not in the forecast. Entered by hand.
    74. 通道13 退出民调 已发布 2026/10/27, 实地考察: Oct 27, 2026, Haaretz live blog; ynet; Times of Israel liveblog: timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-27-2026/. Channel 13 exit poll, updated version (Times of Israel liveblog entry 22:57): B’Yachad 14 to 13, Joint List 10 to 11, every other list unchanged. Full table from Haaretz’s live blog (sums to 120); the two changes as reported by ynet; blocs 50/52/18 as reported by the Times of Israel. Entered by hand.
    75. 通道13 退出民调 已发布 2026/10/27, 实地考察: Oct 27, 2026, ynet news flashes: ynet.co.il/news/category/184. Channel 13 exit poll, third version (ynet flash 'עדכון למדגם חדשות 13: שוויון בין הגושים'): Likud 25 to 27, Yashar 23 to 22, UTJ 7 to 6, every other list unchanged from the 22:57 version. Sums to 120; blocs 51/51/18 match the flash. ynet gave no air time: 01:14 is when we saw it. Entered by hand.
    76. 坎11 退出民调 已发布 2026/10/27, 实地考察: Oct 27, 2026, Times of Israel liveblog: timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-27-2026/. Kan 11 exit poll, updated version (Times of Israel liveblog entry 23:11): B’Yachad 14 to 13, Joint List 10 to 11, every other list as in the first version; blocs 50/52/18, as the liveblog reports for Kan, Channel 12 and Channel 13. Entered by hand.
    77. 坎11 退出民调 已发布 2026/10/27, 实地考察: Oct 27, 2026, ynet news flashes: ynet.co.il/news/category/184. Kan 11 exit poll, third version (ynet flash 'עדכון מדגם כאן 11: שוויון בין הגושים, הליכוד עולה ל-27 מנדטים'): Likud 25 to 27, Otzma Yehudit 7 to 6, Democrats 10 to 9, Yashar 21 unchanged; every other list as in the 23:11 version. Sums to 120 and gives the tie the flash reports (51/51/18). ynet gave no air time: 01:40 is approximate, when we saw it. Entered by hand.
  2. 蓝白党 所有民意调查均低于阈值；如果不穿越，甘茨将在上周退出：以色列时报，9 月20，2026。
  3. 承诺。 记录了在没有阿拉伯政党的情况下执政的承诺：《国土报》，10 月1，2026（标题）。 B'Yachad“只依赖犹太复国主义政党”：《以色列时报》，4 月 26、2026；没有阿拉伯或正统政党：以色列时报，5 月27，2026。联合名单不会加入内塔尼亚胡：以色列时报，8 月 19、2026。 Eisenkot 谈 Ra'am（“他不会成为我下一届政府的成员”）：《以色列时报》，9 月 26、2026。利伯曼，“不适合阿拉伯政党，也不适合哈雷迪政党”：《耶路撒冷邮报》，9 月 21、2025，10 月 3、2026 重复。 UTJ 条件 (Yaakov Asher)：Matzav，9 月 28、2026。
  4. 剩余投票协议。 Yashar-民主党和 B'Yachad-Yisrael Beiteinu 于 9 月 10、2026 签署（以色列时报）。利库德集团-宗教犹太复国主义于 Sep 8 达成一致（以色列 Hayom），据报道未签署 Sep 15（频道 14）；未找到最终状态。联合列表 - Ra'am：Ynet，9 月 11 和耶路撒冷邮报，9 月 13、2026。 Shas-UTJ“预期”：《耶路撒冷邮报》，9 月 10、2026；未找到签名。 Otzma、以色列人民和预备役军人：未找到合作伙伴（自从 Yisrael Beiteinu 与 B'Yachad 签署以来，IPF 的 Yisrael Beiteinu 预备役军人名单尚未得到证实）。
  5. 列表。 UTJ 顺序（Asher 1、Goldknopf 2、Porush 4）：Davar 和 Israel Hayom，9 月 8、2026。拉姆 不。 2 Yoav Segalovitz：《耶路撒冷邮报》和《以色列时报》，8 月 31、2026。 B'Yachad（Yesh Atid 出现在列表中，Lapid 编号 2）：《以色列时报》，9 月 6、2026； 4 月 25-26、2026 签署协议（耶路撒冷邮报）。
  6. 取消资格和法院裁决： 中央选举委员会于 9 月投票 23、2026（《以色列时报》）；最高法院于 10 月 2、2026 作出裁决，10 月 1 举行听证会（《耶路撒冷邮报》；半岛电视台，10 月 2、2026）。
  7. 集团标签和领导人： 以色列政策论坛 120 项目，9 月更新 24、2026；耶路撒冷邮报 9 月 7、2026；以色列时报 8 月 19 和 9 月 6、2026。预备役-经济集团存在争议（IsraelEd：将加入内塔尼亚胡；IPF：“第三集团”；ToI：不结盟），因此它显示在集团之间。
  8. 选票字母： Approved by the Central Elections Committee Sep 27, 2026: Ynet and Emess (Sep 27), full list of 38 in Ice (Sep 2026).
  9. 政党概况：研究登记册已更新2026/10/22。每个项目旁边都标有来源；翻译的引文已被标记。
  10. 领导人传记: Each bio names its sources in parentheses.
  11. 61-多数席位： 以色列民主研究所，4 月 15，2026。
  12. 选举门槛： Knesset Elections Law, s. 81: 3.25% of valid votes.

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