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Projection from the count so far · Coalition talks tracker

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Projection from the count so far · Estimate · Saved snapshot

Updated 07:15 · Checked: Oct 28, 07:15 Israel time

Source

One coherent 120-seat allocation; uncertainty ranges are separate.

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Red lines in play

What each bloc needs to reach 61

  • Netanyahu bloc 52: needs 9 more
  • Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties) 50: needs 11 more
  • Joint List and Ra'am 18: needs 43 more

Combinations that reach 61

  • Netanyahu bloc 52 + Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties) 50 = 102. Pledged against it: Bennett (Zionist parties only) (Times of Israel, Apr 26 and May 27, 2026); Liberman (no Arab or Haredi parties) (Jerusalem Post, Sep 21, 2025; repeated Oct 3, 2026); Eisenkot (no Netanyahu) (Times of Israel, Sep 17, 2026; Zman Yisrael, Oct 6, 2026); Bennett (no Netanyahu) (Ynet (Hebrew), Jul 3, 2026; Times of Israel, Feb 17, 2026); Golan (no Likud, Religious Zionism or Otzma Yehudit) (Ynet, Aug 23, 2026); Golan (no Haredi parties in government) (Times of Israel, May 27, 2026); Liberman (no Netanyahu) (Liberman on X, as reported by JFeed, Sep 17, 2026; Jerusalem Post, May 6, 2026); Ben-Gvir (no Eisenkot) (Jerusalem Post, Aug 29, 2026).
  • Netanyahu bloc 52 + Joint List and Ra'am 18 = 70. Pledged against it: Joint List (won't join Netanyahu) (Times of Israel, Aug 19, 2026; Haaretz, Oct 6, 2026); Smotrich (no Arab parties) (Jerusalem Post, Aug 18, 2026; Times of Israel, May 5, 2026); Ben-Gvir (no Ra'am) (Jerusalem Post, Sep 9, 2026).
  • Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties) 50 + Joint List and Ra'am 18 = 68. Pledged against it: Eisenkot (no Ra'am) (Times of Israel, Sep 26, 2026); Bennett (Zionist parties only) (Times of Israel, Apr 26 and May 27, 2026); Liberman (no Arab or Haredi parties) (Jerusalem Post, Sep 21, 2025; repeated Oct 3, 2026).

Arithmetic and recorded pledges only. It is not a prediction, and no agreement is asserted.

No parties yetView the arrangement

The lists, by bloc

Netanyahu bloc

Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties)

Between the blocs

Joint List and Ra'am

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Sources87ShowHide
  1. Campaign sources 77
    1. Maariv / Lazar poll, fieldwork Sep 30–Oct 1, 2026, published Oct 2, 2026, via Jerusalem Post: jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-910396.
    2. Channel 13 poll, published Oct 1, 2026 (n=1,013), via Times of Israel liveblog. Reservists–Economic polled below the threshold.
    3. Zman Yisrael / Tatika poll, published Oct 1, 2026 (n=500, margin ±4.4).
    4. Kan 11 poll, published Sep 28, 2026, via Jerusalem Post: jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-909918. Kan did not report Shas or UTJ separately. The listed parties add up to 106, so Shas and UTJ together hold 14 (our arithmetic: 120 − 106).
    5. Channel 14 / Next Data / Filber poll, published Oct 1, 2026, via skarim.org. Sep 23 and Sep 28 polls also cited; figures marked date-uncertain are the latest in our register without a date.
    6. Kan 11 / Kantar poll, fieldwork Sep 6, 2026, published Sep 6, 2026 (n=551), via Kan 11: kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/1096840/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    7. Channel 14 / SF+ND poll, fieldwork Sep 7, 2026, published Sep 7, 2026 (n=1,057), via Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1693697. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    8. Channel 12 / Midgam R&C poll, fieldwork Sep 7, 2026, published Sep 7, 2026 (n=503), via Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-067c7eb8e9c70a1026.htm. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    9. Maariv / LRI+P4A poll, fieldwork Sep 7–8, 2026, published Sep 8, 2026 (n=600), via The Jerusalem Post: jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-907949. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    10. Channel 13 / MP+TM+SN+A poll, fieldwork Sep 9, 2026, published Sep 9, 2026 (n=1,119), via Channel 13: 13tv.co.il/item/news/politics/politics/z10wm-905351997/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    11. i24NEWS / Direct Polls poll, fieldwork Sep 9, 2026, published Sep 9, 2026 (n=1,054), via i24NEWS: i24news.tv/he/news/israel-elections-2026/polls/artc-a92f58d0. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    12. Channel 14 / SF+ND poll, fieldwork Sep 9, 2026, published Sep 9, 2026 (n=537), via Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1697000. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    13. Walla / LRI+P4A poll, fieldwork Sep 9, 2026, published Sep 9, 2026 (n=506). Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    14. Kan 11 / Kantar poll, fieldwork Sep 9, 2026, published Sep 9, 2026 (n=554), via Kan 11: kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/1098105/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    15. Channel 12 / Midgam R&C poll, fieldwork Sep 9, 2026, published Sep 9, 2026 (n=504), via Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-c27dc00e8c680a1026.htm. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    16. Maariv / LRI+P4A poll, fieldwork Sep 9–10, 2026, published Sep 11, 2026 (n=601), via Maariv: maariv.co.il/news/politics/article-1365318. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    17. Zman Yisrael / Yossi Tatika poll, fieldwork Sep 9–10, 2026, published Sep 11, 2026 (n=500), via Zman Yisrael: zman.co.il/723041/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    18. Kan 11 / Kantar poll, fieldwork Sep 14, 2026, published Sep 14, 2026, via Kan 11: kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/1099439/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    19. Channel 14 / SF+ND poll, fieldwork Sep 15, 2026, published Sep 15, 2026 (n=483), via Haredim 10: ch10.co.il/en/news/1101859/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    20. Channel 12 / Midgam R&C poll, fieldwork Sep 14, 2026, published Sep 15, 2026, via Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-16f5b846bd3a0a1026.htm. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    21. Channel 13 / MP+TM+SN+A poll, fieldwork Sep 15, 2026, published Sep 16, 2026 (n=886), via Channel 13: 13tv.co.il/item/news/politics/politics/uo4p5-905360485/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    22. Channel 14 / SF+ND poll, fieldwork Sep 17, 2026, published Sep 17, 2026 (n=817), via Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1706627. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    23. i24NEWS / Direct Polls poll, fieldwork Sep 17, 2026, published Sep 17, 2026 (n=519), via i24NEWS: i24news.tv/he/news/israel-elections-2026/polls/artc-5b0e5baa. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    24. Israel Hayom / Kantar poll, fieldwork Sep 16–17, 2026, published Sep 17, 2026 (n=551), via Israel Hayom: israelhayom.co.il/news/politics/article/21444759. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    25. Zman Yisrael / Yossi Tatika poll, fieldwork Sep 16–17, 2026, published Sep 17, 2026 (n=500), via Zman Yisrael: zman.co.il/725468//. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    26. Maariv / LRI+P4A poll, fieldwork Sep 16–17, 2026, published Sep 18, 2026 (n=600), via Maariv: maariv.co.il/news/politics/article-1368599. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    27. Channel 12 / Midgam R&C poll, fieldwork Sep 22, 2026, published Sep 22, 2026 (n=501), via Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-fad59e819c9c0a1027.htm. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    28. Channel 14 / SF+ND poll, fieldwork Sep 23, 2026, published Sep 23, 2026 (n=647), via Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1711606. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    29. Channel 13 / MP+TM+SN+A poll, fieldwork Sep 23, 2026, published Sep 23, 2026 (n=1,503), via Channel 13: 13tv.co.il/item/news/politics/politics/hcp4l-905367553/?pid=98577. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    30. i24NEWS / Direct Polls poll, fieldwork Sep 24, 2026, published Sep 24, 2026 (n=537), via i24NEWS: i24news.tv/he/news/israel-elections-2026/polls/artc-5d1d4577. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    31. Zman Yisrael / Yossi Tatika poll, fieldwork Sep 23–24, 2026, published Sep 25, 2026 (n=500), via The Times of Israel: timesofisrael.com/netanyahus-coalition-and-rival-change-bloc-draw-level-in-latest-toi-poll/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    32. Maariv / LRI+P4A poll, fieldwork Sep 23–24, 2026, published Sep 25, 2026 (n=610), via The Jerusalem Post: jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-909659. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    33. i24NEWS / Direct Polls poll, fieldwork Oct 1, 2026, published Oct 2, 2026 (n=504), via Haredim 10: ch10.co.il/en/news/1105029/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378526425).
    34. Kan 11 / Kantar poll, fieldwork Oct 4, 2026, published Oct 4, 2026 (n=553), via Kan 11: kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/1105927/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378604815).
    35. Channel 12 / Midgam R&C poll, fieldwork Oct 5, 2026, published Oct 5, 2026, via Arutz Sheva: israelnationalnews.com/news/434161. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1378756845).
    36. Channel 14 / SF+ND poll, fieldwork Oct 7, 2026, published Oct 7, 2026 (n=2,175), via Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1728516. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1379241507).
    37. Channel 13 / MP+TM+SN+A poll, fieldwork Oct 7, 2026, published Oct 7, 2026 (n=1,013), via Channel 13: 13tv.co.il/item/news/politics/politics/survey-905386103/?pid=985778. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1379241507).
    38. Israel Hayom / Kantar poll, fieldwork Oct 7–8, 2026, published Oct 8, 2026 (n=555), via Israel Hayom: israelhayom.co.il/news/politics/article/21444759. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1379241507).
    39. Zman Yisrael / Yossi Tatika poll, fieldwork Oct 7–8, 2026, published Oct 8, 2026 (n=500), via Zman Yisrael: zman.co.il/731622/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1379386113).
    40. i24NEWS / Direct Polls poll, fieldwork Oct 7, 2026, published Oct 8, 2026 (n=504), via i24 News: i24news.tv/he/news/israel-elections-2026/polls/artc-fa0f56f4. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1379386113).
    41. Maariv / LRI+P4A poll, fieldwork Oct 7–8, 2026, published Oct 9, 2026 (n=700), via Maariv: maariv.co.il/news/politics/article-1375198. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1379386113).
    42. Channel 14 / SF+ND poll, fieldwork Oct 12, 2026, published Oct 12, 2026 (n=538), via Haredim10: ch10.co.il/en/news/1107207/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1379952737).
    43. Kan 11 / Kantar poll, fieldwork Oct 11, 2026, published Oct 11, 2026 (n=553), via Kan 11: kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/1108256/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1380109781).
    44. Walla / LRI+P4A poll, fieldwork Oct 12, 2026, published Oct 12, 2026 (n=601), via Walla: walla.co.il/news/politics/383957251. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381389461).
    45. Channel 12 / Midgam R&C poll, fieldwork Oct 12, 2026, published Oct 12, 2026 (n=509), via Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-cc91389788031a1026.htm. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381389461).
    46. Channel 13 / MP+TM+SN+A poll, fieldwork Oct 14, 2026, published Oct 14, 2026 (n=1,018), via Channel 13: 13tv.co.il/item/news/politics/politics/survey-905396904/?pid=106628. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381389461).
    47. Zman Yisrael / Yossi Tatika poll, fieldwork Oct 14–15, 2026, published Oct 15, 2026 (n=500), via The Times of Israel: timesofisrael.com/toi-poll-eisenkot-opens-up-big-lead-on-netanyahu-but-both-blocs-short-of-majority/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381389461).
    48. Maariv / LRI+P4A poll, fieldwork Oct 14–15, 2026, published Oct 16, 2026 (n=700), via The Jerusalem Post: jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-911902. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381389461).
    49. Kan 11 / Kantar poll, fieldwork Oct 18, 2026, published Oct 18, 2026 (n=554), via Kan 11: kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/1110393/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381389461).
    50. Channel 13 / MP+TM+SN+A poll, fieldwork Oct 19, 2026, published Oct 19, 2026 (n=1,016), via Channel 13: 13tv.co.il/item/news/politics/politics/jw3wm-905406894/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381389461).
    51. Channel 12 / Midgam R&C poll, fieldwork Oct 19, 2026, published Oct 19, 2026 (n=507), via Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-a6eb664b9d451a1026.htm. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381389461).
    52. Channel 14 / SF+ND poll, fieldwork Oct 20, 2026, published Oct 20, 2026 (n=2,116), via Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1746819. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381389461).
    53. i24NEWS / Direct Polls poll, fieldwork Oct 13, 2026, published Oct 13, 2026 (n=1,210), via i24 News: i24news.tv/he/news/israel-elections-2026/polls/artc-b9e16632. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381477545).
    54. i24NEWS / Direct Polls poll, fieldwork Oct 18, 2026, published Oct 18, 2026 (n=525), via i24 News: i24news.tv/he/news/israel-elections-2026/polls/artc-81805. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381477545).
    55. i24NEWS / Direct Polls poll, fieldwork Oct 20, 2026, published Oct 20, 2026 (n=521), via i24 News: i24news.tv/he/news/israel-elections-2026/polls/artc-91da6024. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381477545).
    56. Walla / LRI+P4A poll, fieldwork Oct 19, 2026, published Oct 20, 2026 (n=601), via Walla: walla.co.il/news/politics/383958175. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381477545). Amcha Yisrael 2.9% (below the threshold) added by hand from the Wikipedia row, 2026-10-23; the import had dropped it.
    57. Channel 13 / MP+TM+SN+A poll, fieldwork Oct 21, 2026, published Oct 21, 2026 (n=1,084), via Channel 13: 13tv.co.il/item/news/politics/politics/ksgoq-905411865/?pid=106628/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381477545).
    58. Channel 12 / Midgam R&C poll, fieldwork Oct 21, 2026, published Oct 21, 2026 (n=505), via Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-bf175ad340f51a1027.htm. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381477545).
    59. Channel 14 / SF+ND poll, fieldwork Oct 21, 2026, published Oct 21, 2026 (n=1,954), via Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1748686. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381477545).
    60. Channel 14 / SF+ND poll, fieldwork Oct 22, 2026, published Oct 22, 2026 (n=7,937), via Channel 14: c14.co.il/article/1750553. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381477545).
    61. Zman Yisrael / Yossi Tatika poll, fieldwork Oct 21–22, 2026, published Oct 22, 2026 (n=500), via Zman Yisrael: zman.co.il/735649/. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381477545).
    62. Maariv / LRI+P4A poll, fieldwork Oct 19–22, 2026, published Oct 22, 2026 (n=1,048), via Maariv: maariv.co.il/news/elections-2026/article-1380289. Imported from Wikipedia (revision 1381577859).
    63. Israel Hayom / Kantar poll, fieldwork Oct 22, 2026, published Oct 22, 2026, via Israel Hayom: israelhayom.co.il/news/politics/article/21694000. Entered by hand 2026-10-24 from Israel Hayom's publication of Oct 23 (fieldwork Oct 22) as listed on Wikipedia's polling page and in ice.co.il's report (https://www.ice.co.il/research/news/article/1134739); no sample size published. Amcha Yisrael not reported.
    64. Kan 11 / Kantar poll, fieldwork Oct 23, 2026, published Oct 23, 2026 (n=1,006), via Kan 11: zman.co.il/live/735892/. The final Kan 11 poll (Kantar), published Friday Oct 23 before the blackout; entered by hand 2026-10-24 from Zman Yisrael's live report, ynet's roundup (https://www.ynet.co.il/news/elections2026/article/hy500sxt2mx; sample 1,006, margin 3%, Amcha Yisrael 2.9%) and Haaretz's live blog (sample given there as 1,106; its Democrats figure of 9 makes 121 seats and is a transcription error: Kan's table has 8, and the Eisenkot bloc total of 52 that every source reports requires it). Not yet on Wikipedia.
    65. Channel 12 / Midgam R&C poll, fieldwork Oct 22–23, 2026, published Oct 23, 2026 (n=1,018), via Channel 12: mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2026/Article-8ea5e45ec2961a1027.htm. The final Channel 12 poll (Midgam with iPanel), published Friday Oct 23 before the blackout; entered by hand 2026-10-24 from Channel 12's own report (1,018 respondents, margin 4.4%; Haredi Public 0.5%, Noam 0.5%). Not yet on Wikipedia.
    66. Channel 13 / MP+TM+SN+A poll, fieldwork Oct 23, 2026, published Oct 23, 2026 (n=1,875), via Channel 13: zman.co.il/live/735899/. The final Channel 13 poll (the HaMadad consortium), published Friday Oct 23 before the blackout; entered by hand 2026-10-24 from Zman Yisrael's live report and ynet's roundup (https://www.ynet.co.il/news/elections2026/article/hy500sxt2mx; 1,875 respondents, margin 2.3%; Haredi Public 1.3%). Haaretz's live blog gives the sample as 1,084. Not yet on Wikipedia.
    67. Kan 11 exit poll poll, fieldwork Oct 27, 2026, published Oct 27, 2026, via Times of Israel liveblog: timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-27-2026/. Kan 11 exit poll, first version at the close of polls (Times of Israel liveblog entry 22:09). Reservists–Economic and Amcha Yisrael below the threshold. Kan says it will update the poll every 30 minutes; later versions are separate rows. Entered by hand.
    68. Channel 13 exit poll poll, fieldwork Oct 27, 2026, published Oct 27, 2026, via JNS; Haaretz live blog: jns.org/israeli-election-exit-polls. Channel 13 exit poll, first version at the close of polls (Times of Israel liveblog entry 22:06). JNS and Haaretz agree on every party; blocs 50/53/17 match the Times of Israel liveblog (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-27-2026/). Reservists–Economic and Amcha Yisrael below the threshold. Entered by hand.
    69. Channel 12 exit poll poll, fieldwork Oct 27, 2026, published Oct 27, 2026, via JNS: jns.org/israeli-election-exit-polls. Channel 12 exit poll, first version at the close of polls (Times of Israel liveblog entry 22:03). Party figures from JNS; they match the Times of Israel liveblog figures for Likud 24, Yashar 22, B’Yachad 12 and the Joint List 11 and its blocs 50/52/18. Haaretz’s live blog gives Yisrael Beytenu 7, Shas 6 and UTJ 7, which make 117 seats and contradict its own bloc totals; JNS’s figures are used. Reservists–Economic and Amcha Yisrael below the threshold. Entered by hand.
    70. Channel 12 exit poll poll, fieldwork Oct 27, 2026, published Oct 27, 2026, via Times of Israel liveblog: timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-27-2026/. Channel 12 exit poll, updated version (Times of Israel liveblog entry 22:44): Democrats 9 to 10, Yisrael Beytenu 9 to 8, every other list as in the first version (from JNS); blocs unchanged at 50 and 52, matching the liveblog. Entered by hand.
    71. Channel 12 exit poll poll, fieldwork Oct 27, 2026, published Oct 27, 2026, via Times of Israel liveblog; ynet news flashes: timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-27-2026/. Channel 12 exit poll, third version (Times of Israel liveblog entry 02:17): Likud 24 to 27, Yashar 22 to 21, Joint List 11 to 12, Democrats 10 to 9, Shas 8 to 7, Yisrael Beiteinu 8 to 7; every other list unchanged from the 22:44 version. Sums to 120; blocs 52/49/19 as reported by the Times of Israel and ynet. Entered by hand.
    72. Channel 14 exit poll poll, fieldwork Oct 27, 2026, published Oct 27, 2026, via JNS: jns.org/israeli-election-exit-polls. Channel 14 exit poll, at the close of polls (in the Times of Israel liveblog roundup at 22:44; air time not stated). Party figures from JNS; they sum to 120 and give the Netanyahu bloc 60, opposition 43 and Arab lists 17, as the Times of Israel reports. ynet gives Religious Zionism 9 and UTJ 9, which make 124; JNS is used. Reservists–Economic and Amcha Yisrael below the threshold (Times of Israel, ynet). Shown apart from the other channels and not in the forecast. Entered by hand.
    73. i24NEWS exit poll poll, fieldwork Oct 27, 2026, published Oct 27, 2026, via i24NEWS: i24news.tv/en/news/israeli-elections/artc-i24news-exit-poll-likud-wins-27-seats-yashar-20-coalition-bloc-reaches-55-seats-opposition-49-and-arab-parties-16. i24NEWS exit poll at the close of polls (air time not stated; in the Times of Israel liveblog roundup at 23:58). Party figures from i24NEWS; they sum to 120 and give the Netanyahu bloc 55, the opposition 49 and the Arab lists 16, as i24NEWS and the Times of Israel both report. Ofer Winter's Reservists–Economic list below the threshold (i24NEWS). Shown apart from the other channels and not in the forecast. Entered by hand.
    74. Channel 13 exit poll poll, fieldwork Oct 27, 2026, published Oct 27, 2026, via Haaretz live blog; ynet; Times of Israel liveblog: timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-27-2026/. Channel 13 exit poll, updated version (Times of Israel liveblog entry 22:57): B’Yachad 14 to 13, Joint List 10 to 11, every other list unchanged. Full table from Haaretz’s live blog (sums to 120); the two changes as reported by ynet; blocs 50/52/18 as reported by the Times of Israel. Entered by hand.
    75. Channel 13 exit poll poll, fieldwork Oct 27, 2026, published Oct 27, 2026, via ynet news flashes: ynet.co.il/news/category/184. Channel 13 exit poll, third version (ynet flash 'עדכון למדגם חדשות 13: שוויון בין הגושים'): Likud 25 to 27, Yashar 23 to 22, UTJ 7 to 6, every other list unchanged from the 22:57 version. Sums to 120; blocs 51/51/18 match the flash. ynet gave no air time: 01:14 is when we saw it. Entered by hand.
    76. Kan 11 exit poll poll, fieldwork Oct 27, 2026, published Oct 27, 2026, via Times of Israel liveblog: timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-27-2026/. Kan 11 exit poll, updated version (Times of Israel liveblog entry 23:11): B’Yachad 14 to 13, Joint List 10 to 11, every other list as in the first version; blocs 50/52/18, as the liveblog reports for Kan, Channel 12 and Channel 13. Entered by hand.
    77. Kan 11 exit poll poll, fieldwork Oct 27, 2026, published Oct 27, 2026, via ynet news flashes: ynet.co.il/news/category/184. Kan 11 exit poll, third version (ynet flash 'עדכון מדגם כאן 11: שוויון בין הגושים, הליכוד עולה ל-27 מנדטים'): Likud 25 to 27, Otzma Yehudit 7 to 6, Democrats 10 to 9, Yashar 21 unchanged; every other list as in the 23:11 version. Sums to 120 and gives the tie the flash reports (51/51/18). ynet gave no air time: 01:40 is approximate, when we saw it. Entered by hand.
  2. Blue and White below threshold in all polls; Gantz will drop out in the last week if not crossing: Times of Israel, Sep 20, 2026.
  3. Pledges. Recorded pledges to govern without Arab parties: Haaretz, Oct 1, 2026 (headline). B'Yachad “only rely on Zionist parties”: Times of Israel, Apr 26, 2026; no Arab or Haredi parties: Times of Israel, May 27, 2026. Joint List won't join Netanyahu: Times of Israel, Aug 19, 2026. Eisenkot on Ra'am (“he won't be part of my next government”): Times of Israel, Sep 26, 2026. Liberman, “not for the Arab parties and not for the haredi parties”: Jerusalem Post, Sep 21, 2025, repeated Oct 3, 2026. UTJ condition (Yaakov Asher): Matzav, Sep 28, 2026.
  4. Surplus-vote agreements. Yashar–Democrats and B'Yachad–Yisrael Beiteinu signed Sep 10, 2026 (Times of Israel). Likud–Religious Zionism agreed Sep 8 (Israel Hayom), reported unsigned Sep 15 (Channel 14); final status not found. Joint List–Ra'am: Ynet, Sep 11, and Jerusalem Post, Sep 13, 2026. Shas–UTJ “expected”: Jerusalem Post, Sep 10, 2026; signing not found. Otzma, People of Israel and Reservists: no partner found (an IPF listing of Reservists with Yisrael Beiteinu is unconfirmed, since Yisrael Beiteinu signed with B'Yachad).
  5. Lists. UTJ order (Asher 1, Goldknopf 2, Porush 4): Davar and Israel Hayom, Sep 8, 2026. Ra'am no. 2 Yoav Segalovitz: Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel, Aug 31, 2026. B'Yachad (Yesh Atid runs inside the list, Lapid no. 2): Times of Israel, Sep 6, 2026; deal signed Apr 25–26, 2026 (Jerusalem Post).
  6. Disqualification and court ruling: Central Elections Committee vote Sep 23, 2026 (Times of Israel); Supreme Court ruling Oct 2, 2026, hearing Oct 1 (Jerusalem Post; Al Jazeera, Oct 2, 2026).
  7. Bloc labels and leaders: Israel Policy Forum 120 Project, updated Sep 24, 2026; Jerusalem Post Sep 7, 2026; Times of Israel Aug 19 and Sep 6, 2026. Reservists–Economic's bloc is disputed (IsraelEd: would join Netanyahu; IPF: “third bloc”; ToI: non-aligned), so it is shown between the blocs.
  8. Ballot letters: Approved by the Central Elections Committee Sep 27, 2026: Ynet and Emess (Sep 27), full list of 38 in Ice (Sep 2026).
  9. Party profiles (history, voters, positions, list names, pledges, surplus partners, quotes): research registers compiled Oct 22, 2026, from the sources named next to each item (Israel Democracy Institute, Times of Israel, Jerusalem Post, Ynet, JTA, INN, Al Jazeera, Maariv and others). Quotes are translated from Hebrew where needed, and each names its source.
  10. Leader bios: Each bio names its sources in parentheses.
  11. 61-seat majority: Israel Democracy Institute, Apr 15, 2026.
  12. Electoral threshold: Knesset Elections Law, s. 81: 3.25% of valid votes.

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