Saved campaign forecast · historical evidence
Projection from the count so far · Estimate · Current
Updated 02:05 from the count file of 01:51 · Checked: Oct 29, 02:05 Israel time
Source
One coherent 120-seat allocation; uncertainty ranges are separate.
Current seat context · Coalition talks tracker
Forecast evaluation against official seats
Evaluation waits for a verified official seat allocation. Saved campaign predictions stay unchanged.
The campaign polls: final record
In the count so far the Netanyahu bloc has 53 seats and the Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties) 49. The final poll average had them at 52.4 and 49.6.
The Netanyahu bloc has led the average on every date since Sep 6
Oct 23, 2026: Netanyahu bloc 52.4 (current polls 48 to 62); Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties) 49.6 (current polls 44 to 56); 9 current polls.
- Netanyahu bloc, site average
- Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), site average
- One poll
- Channel 14 or i24NEWS
- Range of current polls, lowest to highest
- Count so far: 53 and 49
61 or more: Netanyahu bloc 1 of 9 polls, Anti-Netanyahu bloc 0 of 9.
Newest poll: Channel 12 / Midgam R&C, Oct 23, 2026
Lines are the site average, thin edges the range of the current polls, dots single polls.
How to read this
On each date the line is the bloc's total in the site average then: each pollster's latest poll from the 14 days up to then, each list averaged and scaled to 120 seats, the same figures the Coalition Builder starts from. The two thin edges run from the lowest to the highest bloc total among those polls. It is the spread of the polls, not a confidence interval or a forecast. Dots are each poll's own published totals. The axis runs in weeks to election day, Oct 27, 2026; nothing is drawn for the weeks still to come.
The numbers
| Date | Current polls | Netanyahu bloc | Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties) | Netanyahu bloc range | Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties) range | Netanyahu bloc, Count so far | Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), Count so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 9 | 52.4 | 49.6 | 48–62 | 44–56 | 53 | 49 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 9 | 53.0 | 49.2 | 48–62 | 44–55 | 53 | 49 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 9 | 51.8 | 50.3 | 48–62 | 44–55 | 53 | 49 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 9 | 51.8 | 50.2 | 48–62 | 44–55 | 53 | 49 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 9 | 51.1 | 51.0 | 49–61 | 42–55 | 53 | 49 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 9 | 50.9 | 50.7 | 49–61 | 42–54 | 53 | 49 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 9 | 51.1 | 50.6 | 49–61 | 42–54 | 53 | 49 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 9 | 51.3 | 50.7 | 49–61 | 42–54 | 53 | 49 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 9 | 53.5 | 49.5 | 49–61 | 42–55 | 53 | 49 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 9 | 53.9 | 49.3 | 49–61 | 42–55 | 53 | 49 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 9 | 53.8 | 49.3 | 49–61 | 42–55 | 53 | 49 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | 8 | 55.0 | 48.3 | 49–63 | 45–55 | 53 | 49 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 8 | 55.0 | 48.4 | 49–63 | 45–55 | 53 | 49 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 8 | 55.1 | 48.4 | 49–63 | 45–55 | 53 | 49 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 7 | 55.7 | 47.7 | 49–63 | 45–54 | 53 | 49 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 7 | 54.6 | 48.8 | 49–64 | 44–54 | 53 | 49 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | 7 | 54.5 | 48.9 | 50–64 | 44–54 | 53 | 49 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 7 | 54.4 | 49.2 | 50–64 | 44–54 | 53 | 49 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 8 | 53.8 | 49.7 | 49–64 | 44–55 | 53 | 49 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 8 | 53.4 | 50.3 | 49–63 | 45–55 | 53 | 49 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 8 | 53.3 | 50.3 | 49–63 | 45–55 | 53 | 49 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 8 | 53.6 | 50.2 | 50–63 | 45–55 | 53 | 49 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 9 | 53.1 | 50.7 | 50–63 | 45–57 | 53 | 49 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 9 | 55.1 | 51.8 | 50–64 | 44–57 | 53 | 49 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 9 | 55.1 | 51.8 | 50–64 | 44–57 | 53 | 49 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 9 | 55.1 | 52.2 | 50–64 | 44–58 | 53 | 49 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 8 | 55.3 | 52.6 | 50–64 | 44–58 | 53 | 49 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 8 | 55.1 | 52.6 | 50–64 | 44–58 | 53 | 49 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 8 | 55.0 | 52.7 | 50–64 | 44–58 | 53 | 49 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 8 | 55.1 | 52.6 | 50–64 | 44–58 | 53 | 49 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | 7 | 55.4 | 52.3 | 47–64 | 44–57 | 53 | 49 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | 4 | 54.8 | 49.5 | 47–63 | 44–57 | 53 | 49 |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 3 | 58.0 | 49.7 | 52–63 | 44–57 | 53 | 49 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | 1 | 52.0 | 51.0 | 52 | 51 | 53 | 49 |
Likud is largest in the average, ahead outright in 2 of 9 current polls
| List | Seats in each poll | Seats, polling average | Range | Passes | Without Channel 14 and i24NEWS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu blocLikud | Channel 12 21, Channel 13 19, Kan 11 20, Channel 14 30, Israel Hayom 21, Maariv 19, Zman Yisrael 21, i24NEWS 26, Walla 19 | 22.5 | 19–30 | 9 of 9 | 19.7 |
| Shas | Channel 12 8, Channel 13 7, Kan 11 7, Channel 14 9, Israel Hayom 8, Maariv 8, Zman Yisrael 8, i24NEWS 8, Walla 8 | 7.9 | 7–9 | 9 of 9 | 7.6 |
| Otzma Yehudit | Channel 12 8, Channel 13 8, Kan 11 8, Channel 14 8, Israel Hayom 8, Maariv 7, Zman Yisrael 8, i24NEWS 9, Walla 8 | 7.8 | 7–9 | 9 of 9 | 7.8 |
| UTJ | Channel 12 7, Channel 13 8, Kan 11 8, Channel 14 8, Israel Hayom 7, Maariv 7, Zman Yisrael 8, i24NEWS 8, Walla 7 | 7.5 | 7–8 | 9 of 9 | 7.4 |
| Religious Zionism–Zehut | Channel 12 6, Channel 13 8, Kan 11 7, Channel 14 7, Israel Hayom 6, Maariv 7, Zman Yisrael 6, i24NEWS 7, Walla 6 | 6.7 | 6–8 | 9 of 9 | 6.6 |
| People of Israel | Channel 12 below the threshold, Channel 13 below the threshold, Kan 11 below the threshold, Channel 14 below the threshold, Maariv below the threshold, Zman Yisrael below the threshold, i24NEWS below the threshold, Walla below the threshold | below | 0 of 8 | below | |
| Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties)Yashar! | Channel 12 23, Channel 13 22, Kan 11 22, Channel 14 20, Israel Hayom 23, Maariv 21, Zman Yisrael 23, i24NEWS 20, Walla 23 | 21.2 | 20–23 | 9 of 9 | 22.1 |
| B'Yachad | Channel 12 15, Channel 13 14, Kan 11 14, Channel 14 11, Israel Hayom 14, Maariv 15, Zman Yisrael 11, i24NEWS 12, Walla 14 | 12.8 | 11–15 | 9 of 9 | 13.8 |
| The Democrats | Channel 12 10, Channel 13 10, Kan 11 8, Channel 14 8, Israel Hayom 8, Maariv 10, Zman Yisrael 8, i24NEWS 9, Walla 9 | 8.6 | 8–10 | 9 of 9 | 9.0 |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | Channel 12 8, Channel 13 8, Kan 11 8, Channel 14 5, Israel Hayom 7, Maariv 8, Zman Yisrael 9, i24NEWS 7, Walla 8 | 7.0 | 5–9 | 9 of 9 | 7.9 |
| Between the blocsReservists–Economic | Channel 12 below the threshold, Channel 13 below the threshold, Kan 11 4, Channel 14 below the threshold, Israel Hayom 4, Maariv 4, Zman Yisrael 4, i24NEWS below the threshold, Walla 4 | 4.0 | 0–4 | 5 of 9 | 4.0 |
| Joint List and Ra'amJoint List | Channel 12 9, Channel 13 9, Kan 11 9, Channel 14 8, Israel Hayom 9, Maariv 9, Zman Yisrael 9, i24NEWS 8, Walla 8 | 8.4 | 8–9 | 9 of 9 | 8.8 |
| Ra'am | Channel 12 5, Channel 13 7, Kan 11 5, Channel 14 6, Israel Hayom 5, Maariv 5, Zman Yisrael 5, i24NEWS 6, Walla 6 | 5.6 | 5–7 | 9 of 9 | 5.4 |
One pollChannel 14 or i24NEWSSeats, polling average, scaled to 120Threshold: a list that passes wins at least 4 seats
The latest poll from each of 9 pollsters; averages scaled to 120 seats.
How to read this
Each list's average weights each poll by the square root of its sample size, over the polls where the list passed. Those averages add to 122.3, so every one is scaled down in proportion to 120 seats, the figure every page of the site prints; the alternative average is scaled the same way. “Below” is a list that passes in fewer than half the polls, which counts 0. A point at zero is a poll that had the list below the threshold.
The largest move: People of Israel, −4.0 seats since Sep 6
Oct 23, 2026: Likud 22.5, Yashar! 21.2, B'Yachad 12.8.
All 14 separately tracked lists on the same 0–35 seat scale; dots are single polls.
How to read this
Each line is a list's seats in the site's polling average as it stood on each publication date, scaled to 120 as everywhere else on the site; below means it was below or near the threshold that day and counts 0. Dots are single polls. A gap means no poll reported the list separately. No smoothing or uncertainty band is added. Point at or tap the chart, or use the left and right arrow keys, to read a date; the picker shows each list's value on that date, and – means no separate average.
Related shades group the site's current political families; each list has its own color. These editorial groups do not establish a coalition agreement or a party's willingness to govern with another list.
The numbers: every chart date and list
| Date | Likud | Shas | Otzma Yehudit | UTJ | Religious Zionism–Zehut | People of Israel | Yashar! | B'Yachad | The Democrats | Yisrael Beiteinu | Blue and White | Reservists–Economic | Joint List | Ra'am |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 20.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 23.0 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | – | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 |
| 2026-09-07 | 24.3 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 23.1 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 6.8 | below | below | 7.4 | 5.0 |
| 2026-09-08 | 22.6 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 22.6 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 7.1 | below | 4.0 | 7.1 | 4.8 |
| 2026-09-09 | 22.8 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 23.4 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 7.9 | below | below | 7.1 | 5.2 |
| 2026-09-11 | 22.7 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 23.3 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 8.1 | below | below | 7.0 | 5.1 |
| 2026-09-14 | 22.5 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 23.3 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 8.3 | below | below | 7.0 | 5.1 |
| 2026-09-15 | 22.3 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 23.0 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 8.1 | below | below | 7.3 | 5.0 |
| 2026-09-16 | 22.3 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 23.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 8.1 | below | below | 7.3 | 5.0 |
| 2026-09-17 | 22.1 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 22.8 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 8.2 | below | below | 7.3 | 5.1 |
| 2026-09-18 | 22.0 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 22.6 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 8.2 | below | below | 7.3 | 5.1 |
| 2026-09-22 | 22.0 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 22.6 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 8.3 | below | below | 7.2 | 5.2 |
| 2026-09-23 | 21.3 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 22.2 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 8.1 | below | 4.0 | 7.1 | 5.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 21.5 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 22.1 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 7.9 | below | 4.0 | 7.2 | 5.1 |
| 2026-09-25 | 21.4 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 22.0 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 8.1 | below | 4.0 | 7.2 | 5.1 |
| 2026-09-28 | 21.5 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 21.9 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 8.2 | below | 4.0 | 7.2 | 5.1 |
| 2026-10-01 | 21.7 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 21.4 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 8.2 | below | 4.1 | 7.3 | 5.0 |
| 2026-10-02 | 22.1 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 21.2 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 8.3 | below | 4.2 | 7.5 | 4.9 |
| 2026-10-04 | 22.1 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 21.1 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 8.2 | below | 4.1 | 7.6 | 4.9 |
| 2026-10-05 | 22.1 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 21.0 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 8.2 | below | 4.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 |
| 2026-10-07 | 23.0 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 21.2 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 7.5 | below | 4.1 | 7.5 | 5.0 |
| 2026-10-08 | 22.3 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 21.2 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 7.5 | below | 4.1 | 7.5 | 5.0 |
| 2026-10-09 | 22.4 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 21.2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 7.5 | below | 4.1 | 7.5 | 5.0 |
| 2026-10-11 | 22.4 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 21.2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 7.4 | below | 4.1 | 7.5 | 5.0 |
| 2026-10-12 | 21.1 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 20.9 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 7.9 | below | 4.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 |
| 2026-10-13 | 21.3 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 20.9 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 7.8 | below | 4.0 | 7.7 | 5.1 |
| 2026-10-14 | 21.1 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 21.0 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 8.0 | below | 4.0 | 7.8 | 5.1 |
| 2026-10-15 | 21.8 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 6.0 | below | 21.7 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 8.1 | below | 4.1 | 7.9 | 5.3 |
| 2026-10-16 | 21.5 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | below | 21.7 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 8.0 | below | 4.1 | 8.0 | 5.4 |
| 2026-10-18 | 21.1 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 6.2 | below | 21.9 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 7.9 | below | 4.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 |
| 2026-10-19 | 21.3 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 6.5 | below | 22.0 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 7.7 | below | 4.1 | 8.2 | 5.4 |
| 2026-10-20 | 22.0 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 6.6 | below | 21.7 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 7.6 | below | 4.1 | 8.2 | 5.6 |
| 2026-10-21 | 21.9 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 6.6 | below | 21.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 7.4 | below | 4.1 | 8.2 | 5.6 |
| 2026-10-22 | 23.0 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 6.7 | below | 21.0 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 6.9 | – | 4.0 | 8.4 | 5.5 |
| 2026-10-23 | 22.5 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 6.7 | below | 21.2 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 7.0 | – | 4.0 | 8.4 | 5.6 |
Every list on its own chart
Netanyahu bloc
Start 20.0 (Sep 6) to latest 22.5 (Oct 23); change +2.5 seats.
Zoomed for this party: 17–33 seats, axis does not start at zero
Oct 23: 22.5 seats, 9 separately reporting polls
Start 7.0 (Sep 6) to latest 7.9 (Oct 23); change +0.9 seats.
Zoomed for this party: 5–12 seats, axis does not start at zero
Some individual figures have an unrecorded date and are plotted at the register entry’s publication date. Their dated tooltips identify that limit; this is not a confirmed fieldwork date.
Oct 23: 7.9 seats, 9 separately reporting polls
Start 7.0 (Sep 6) to latest 7.8 (Oct 23); change +0.8 seats.
Zoomed for this party: 5–11 seats, axis does not start at zero
Some individual figures have an unrecorded date and are plotted at the register entry’s publication date. Their dated tooltips identify that limit; this is not a confirmed fieldwork date.
Oct 23: 7.8 seats, 9 separately reporting polls
Start 8.0 (Sep 6) to latest 7.5 (Oct 23); change −0.5 seats.
Zoomed for this party: 5–10 seats, axis does not start at zero
Some individual figures have an unrecorded date and are plotted at the register entry’s publication date. Their dated tooltips identify that limit; this is not a confirmed fieldwork date.
Oct 23: 7.5 seats, 9 separately reporting polls
Start 6.0 (Sep 6) to latest 6.7 (Oct 23); change +0.7 seats.
Zoomed for this party: 3–9 seats, axis does not start at zero
Some individual figures have an unrecorded date and are plotted at the register entry’s publication date. Their dated tooltips identify that limit; this is not a confirmed fieldwork date.
Oct 23: 6.7 seats, 9 separately reporting polls
Start 4.0 (Sep 6) to latest below (Oct 23); change −4.0 seats.
Zoomed for this party: 0–7 seats
Some individual figures have an unrecorded date and are plotted at the register entry’s publication date. Their dated tooltips identify that limit; this is not a confirmed fieldwork date.
Oct 23: below, 8 separately reporting polls
Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties)
Start 23.0 (Sep 6) to latest 21.2 (Oct 23); change −1.8 seats.
Zoomed for this party: 18–27 seats, axis does not start at zero
Oct 23: 21.2 seats, 9 separately reporting polls
Start 13.0 (Sep 6) to latest 12.8 (Oct 23); change −0.2 seats.
Zoomed for this party: 5–16 seats, axis does not start at zero
Oct 23: 12.8 seats, 9 separately reporting polls
Start 8.0 (Sep 6) to latest 8.6 (Oct 23); change +0.6 seats.
Zoomed for this party: 7–12 seats, axis does not start at zero
Oct 23: 8.6 seats, 9 separately reporting polls
Start 7.0 (Sep 6) to latest 7.0 (Oct 23); change 0.0 seats.
Zoomed for this party: 3–11 seats, axis does not start at zero
Oct 23: 7.0 seats, 9 separately reporting polls
Start below (Sep 7) to latest below (Oct 21); change 0.0 seats.
Zoomed for this party: 0–4 seats
Oct 23: no separate average available
Between the blocs
Start 4.0 (Sep 6) to latest 4.0 (Oct 23); change 0.0 seats.
Zoomed for this party: 0–6 seats
Oct 23: 4.0 seats, 9 separately reporting polls
Joint List and Ra'am
Start 7.0 (Sep 6) to latest 8.4 (Oct 23); change +1.4 seats.
Zoomed for this party: 5–13 seats, axis does not start at zero
Oct 23: 8.4 seats, 9 separately reporting polls
Start 6.0 (Sep 6) to latest 5.6 (Oct 23); change −0.4 seats.
Zoomed for this party: 3–8 seats, axis does not start at zero
Oct 23: 5.6 seats, 9 separately reporting polls
Dots are single polls; lines are the list's seats in the site's polling average on each publication date, scaled to 120 as above. Per-party zoom shows small changes, with a minimum four-seat span and enough range for every dot. The bounds are labeled: heights across zoomed panels do not compare party size. Switch to the shared 0–35 scale to compare size. A reported threshold failure stays at zero; zero is not the 3.25% vote threshold. Gaps mean no separate average. Point, tap or use left/right arrow keys for dated values.
Across the 9 current polls the Netanyahu bloc runs 48 to 62, the Anti-Netanyahu bloc 44 to 56
Netanyahu bloc61 or more in 1 of 9 polls, from 48 to 62
Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties)under 61 in all 9 polls, from 44 to 56
The latest poll from each of 9 pollsters, Oct 20 to Oct 23, 2026; hollow points are Channel 14 and i24NEWS. Build a coalition from these numbers.
How to read this
Hollow points are the two pollsters the site's alternative average leaves out. Bloc totals in the average are the lists' averages scaled to 120 seats, the values the Coalition Builder starts from; each poll's totals are its own published figures. Lists that pass in fewer than half the polls count zero. How the average is made.
Channel 14 shows the Netanyahu bloc 8.7 seats above the average
| Pollster | Polls | Netanyahu bloc | Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Channel 14 | 11 | +8.7 seats | −6.4 seats |
| i24NEWS | 8 | +5.2 seats | −2.2 seats |
| Channel 13 | 9 | −1.7 seats | +1.4 seats |
| Kan 11 | 8 | −1.9 seats | +1.2 seats |
| Zman Yisrael | 7 | −3.0 seats | +2.8 seats |
| Israel Hayom | 3 | −3.4 seats | +1.7 seats |
| Channel 12 | 9 | −3.7 seats | +4.5 seats |
| Maariv | 8 | −4.2 seats | +4.1 seats |
| Walla | 3 | −4.3 seats | +4.4 seats |
Seats above or below the site average, averaged over each pollster's campaign polls.
How to read this
For each poll: its own bloc total minus the site's bloc average on its publication date, an average that includes that poll; then the mean over the pollster's polls. Hollow bars are Channel 14 and i24NEWS. A pollster with one or two polls says little. A lean is a difference from the other pollsters, not proof of error: the site average is not the true figure.
The numbers: every poll's gap
| Pollster | Published | Netanyahu bloc | Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Channel 14 | Oct 22, 2026 | +9.0 | −5.2 |
| Channel 14 | Oct 21, 2026 | +10.2 | −6.3 |
| Channel 14 | Oct 20, 2026 | +10.2 | −6.2 |
| Channel 14 | Oct 12, 2026 | +7.2 | −7.3 |
| Channel 14 | Oct 7, 2026 | +7.3 | −2.7 |
| Channel 14 | Oct 1, 2026 | +10.2 | −5.7 |
| Channel 14 | Sep 23, 2026 | +9.9 | −5.7 |
| Channel 14 | Sep 17, 2026 | +8.9 | −8.2 |
| Channel 14 | Sep 15, 2026 | +8.9 | −8.6 |
| Channel 14 | Sep 9, 2026 | +8.6 | −8.3 |
| Channel 14 | Sep 7, 2026 | +5.0 | −5.7 |
| i24NEWS | Oct 20, 2026 | +6.2 | −2.2 |
| i24NEWS | Oct 18, 2026 | +6.1 | −1.7 |
| i24NEWS | Oct 13, 2026 | +3.1 | +0.7 |
| i24NEWS | Oct 8, 2026 | +4.9 | −0.4 |
| i24NEWS | Oct 2, 2026 | +5.6 | −2.2 |
| i24NEWS | Sep 24, 2026 | +6.4 | −3.2 |
| i24NEWS | Sep 17, 2026 | +4.9 | −4.2 |
| i24NEWS | Sep 9, 2026 | +4.6 | −4.3 |
| Channel 13 | Oct 23, 2026 | −2.4 | +4.4 |
| Channel 13 | Oct 21, 2026 | −2.8 | +1.7 |
| Channel 13 | Oct 19, 2026 | −1.1 | 0.0 |
| Channel 13 | Oct 14, 2026 | −2.5 | +0.5 |
| Channel 13 | Oct 7, 2026 | −0.7 | +2.3 |
| Channel 13 | Oct 1, 2026 | +0.2 | +2.3 |
| Channel 13 | Sep 23, 2026 | −2.1 | +1.3 |
| Channel 13 | Sep 16, 2026 | −1.3 | −0.6 |
| Channel 13 | Sep 9, 2026 | −2.4 | +0.7 |
| Kan 11 | Oct 23, 2026 | −2.4 | +2.4 |
| Kan 11 | Oct 18, 2026 | +0.1 | +1.3 |
| Kan 11 | Oct 11, 2026 | −2.0 | +1.7 |
| Kan 11 | Oct 4, 2026 | −3.5 | +3.1 |
| Kan 11 | Sep 28, 2026 | −1.4 | +1.7 |
| Kan 11 | Sep 14, 2026 | −3.0 | −0.7 |
| Kan 11 | Sep 9, 2026 | −3.4 | −0.3 |
| Kan 11 | Sep 6, 2026 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Zman Yisrael | Oct 22, 2026 | −2.0 | +1.8 |
| Zman Yisrael | Oct 15, 2026 | −2.3 | +3.3 |
| Zman Yisrael | Oct 8, 2026 | −4.1 | +6.6 |
| Zman Yisrael | Oct 1, 2026 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| Zman Yisrael | Sep 25, 2026 | −4.3 | +2.7 |
| Zman Yisrael | Sep 17, 2026 | −4.1 | +2.8 |
| Zman Yisrael | Sep 11, 2026 | −3.1 | +3.4 |
| Israel Hayom | Oct 22, 2026 | −3.0 | +2.8 |
| Israel Hayom | Oct 8, 2026 | −4.1 | +2.6 |
| Israel Hayom | Sep 17, 2026 | −3.1 | −0.2 |
| Channel 12 | Oct 23, 2026 | −2.4 | +6.4 |
| Channel 12 | Oct 21, 2026 | −0.8 | +4.7 |
| Channel 12 | Oct 19, 2026 | −0.1 | +4.0 |
| Channel 12 | Oct 12, 2026 | −4.8 | +4.7 |
| Channel 12 | Oct 5, 2026 | −5.6 | +5.2 |
| Channel 12 | Sep 22, 2026 | −5.1 | +2.2 |
| Channel 12 | Sep 15, 2026 | −5.1 | +1.4 |
| Channel 12 | Sep 9, 2026 | −3.4 | +4.7 |
| Channel 12 | Sep 7, 2026 | −6.0 | +7.3 |
| Maariv | Oct 22, 2026 | −5.0 | +4.8 |
| Maariv | Oct 16, 2026 | −0.1 | +0.4 |
| Maariv | Oct 9, 2026 | −3.0 | +3.6 |
| Maariv | Oct 2, 2026 | −3.4 | +3.8 |
| Maariv | Sep 25, 2026 | −4.3 | +4.7 |
| Maariv | Sep 18, 2026 | −5.1 | +2.2 |
| Maariv | Sep 11, 2026 | −5.1 | +5.4 |
| Maariv | Sep 8, 2026 | −7.8 | +7.5 |
| Walla | Oct 20, 2026 | −3.8 | +3.8 |
| Walla | Oct 12, 2026 | −4.8 | +4.7 |
| Walla | Sep 9, 2026 | −4.4 | +4.7 |
Pollster accuracy (provisional)
| Pollster | Final poll | Lists compared | Mean error per list, seats | Netanyahu bloc, error in seats | Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), error in seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Channel 12 | 13 | 1.5 | 3 | 7 | |
| Channel 13 | 13 | 1.5 | 3 | 5 | |
| Zman Yisrael | 13 | 1.5 | 2 | 2 | |
| Kan 11 | 13 | 1.7 | 3 | 3 | |
| Israel Hayom | 12 | 1.8 | 3 | 3 | |
| Walla | 13 | 1.8 | 5 | 5 | |
| Maariv | 13 | 2 | 5 | 5 | |
| i24NEWS Kept apart from the averages | 13 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Channel 14 Kept apart from the averages | 13 | 1.4 | 9 | 5 |
Each pollster's final poll against the Count so far: the mean absolute error in seats over the lists it reported separately, and the error in each bloc's total. Provisional while the count is; it updates by itself and is final with the official result.
Without Channel 14 and i24NEWS the Netanyahu bloc has 49.1, 3.3 fewer
The same average without the polls by Shlomo Filber's firms: Channel 14 (Next Data) and i24NEWS (Direct Polls).
The forecast is the site's model, not an average: the field polls, corrected for the kinds of list the polls have historically missed, run through 50,000 simulated elections with the threshold and Bader-Ofer. Netanyahu bloc at 61 or more in 1% of runs, the anti-Netanyahu Zionist bloc in 0%, neither in 99%. How the forecast is made.
Election-night exit polls are kept in their own record on the results page: exit-poll record.
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How the average is made
New polls arrive twice a day from Wikipedia's polling tables and are checked automatically before they appear here: seats must add to 120, the pollster must be one we know, and no party may jump more than 5 seats from that pollster's previous poll.
Each pollster's latest poll from the 14 days up to Oct 23, 2026 (9 polls: Channel 12 Oct 23, Channel 13 Oct 23, Kan 11 Oct 23, Channel 14 Oct 22, Israel Hayom Oct 22, Maariv Oct 22, Zman Yisrael Oct 22, i24NEWS Oct 20, Walla Oct 20). The Coalition Builder and Party Map use the same polls. Every pollster that publishes its sample size and method is averaged, Channel 14 included. Pollsters are included or left out by firm and stated method, never by their results.
Each list's average is taken over the polls where it passed the 3.25% threshold, so a list that passes never averages below 4 seats; “passes in k of n” counts those polls out of the polls that reported the list. A list that passes in fewer than half is shown as near the threshold and left out of the Coalition Builder's default count. Polls are weighted by the square root of their sample size; a poll that reports no sample size counts as the median of those that do. Because small lists sometimes miss the threshold, these averages can add to more than 120; the Coalition Builder, the Party Map and the home page scale them down in proportion only when their sum exceeds 120. Every seat figure on this page, the trend lines included, is that scaled average, as in the builder, the Party Map and the home page. The same average without the polls by Shlomo Filber's firms: Channel 14 (Next Data) and i24NEWS (Direct Polls).
Figure-date uncertainty: the register includes figures for Otzma Yehudit, Shas, UTJ, Religious Zionism–Zehut, People of Israel whose own dates were not recorded. They retain the register entry’s publication date in these charts and calculations; that date is not a confirmed date for each figure. The poll browser marks them † and its method card explains the distinction.
Sources: Wikipedia's polling tables and the reports each poll cites, linked from every row of Every poll.
How the forecast is made
The forecast is the site's own model, offered beside the two averages and scored against them when the result is in: the field polls (7, without Channel 14 and i24NEWS) read back into vote shares, corrected for the kinds of list the final-week polls have missed in one direction since 2013 (Shas and the Arab lists up, first-time lists near the threshold and Bennett's list down), shifted by 1.7 seats toward the Netanyahu bloc (the pollsters' average miss on that bloc since 2015) and run through 50,000 simulated elections with the threshold and Bader-Ofer. The Netanyahu bloc reaches 61 in 1% of runs, the anti-Netanyahu Zionist bloc in 0%, neither in 99%. The forecast page has every step, parameter and input, the record the rules come from, the daily runs and the scoring rule (generated Oct 27, 2026).
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