Israel Votesישראל בוחרת

Projection from the count so far · Coalition talks tracker

Results

The committee’s count so far, captured Oct 29, 2:11 AM Israel time (8:11 PM EDT); seats are this site's estimate.

  1. Early count, done
  2. The count

Publication time dates the evidence. Check time dates our last source check. A correction can change the allocation without changing when voting took place.

Current seat context

Projection from the count so far · Estimate · Current

Updated 02:05 from the count file of 01:51 · Checked: Oct 29, 02:05 Israel time

Source

One coherent 120-seat allocation; uncertainty ranges are separate.

Likud 27Yashar! 22B'Yachad 11Joint List 11The Democrats 8Yisrael Beiteinu 8Otzma Yehudit 7UTJ 7Ra'am 7Religious Zionism–Zehut 6Shas 6
Seats · Projection from the count so far
SeatsEstimate80% marginal interval; not another 120-seat allocation
Likud2726–27
Yashar!2221–22
B'Yachad1111–12
Joint List1111–11
The Democrats88–9
Yisrael Beiteinu87–8
Otzma Yehudit77–7
UTJ77–7
Ra'am77–7
Religious Zionism–Zehut66–6
Shas66–6

Coalition talks tracker

Where the count stands

Partial count

How do the blocs compare?

  1. Netanyahu-led bloc53 (47–56)68 seats in the outgoing Knesset
  2. Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties)49 (46–53)42 seats in the outgoing Knesset
  3. Between the blocs0 (0–4)0 seats in the outgoing Knesset
  4. Arab lists18 (15–22)10 seats in the outgoing Knesset

Hollow tick: the bloc's seats in the last Knesset.

Each figure is from the single 120-seat parliament shown above, the one closest to the middle of all the simulations. The range beside it covers 80% of simulated outcomes.

Who is closest to the threshold?

Lists within 0.75 points of the 3.25% threshold in the count so far.

  1. Reservists–Economic20%
    Chance of clearing 3.25%Share of the count: 2.63%
Projected seats · 80% range
Projected seats80% rangeLast Knesset
Likud27 (23–30)36 seats in the outgoing Knesset (Likud 32 + New Hope 4)
Yashar!22 (18–24)new list, no seats in the outgoing Knesset
B'Yachad11 (11–14)24 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Joint List11 (8–15)5 seats in the outgoing Knesset (Hadash 3 + Ta'al 2)
The Democrats8 (7–11)4 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Yisrael Beiteinu8 (6–9)6 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Otzma Yehudit7 (4–8)6 seats in the outgoing Knesset
UTJ7 (4–8)7 seats in the outgoing Knesset (Degel HaTorah 4 + Agudat Yisrael 3)
Ra'am7 (5–9)5 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Shas6 (5–8)11 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Religious Zionism–Zehut6 (4–8)7 seats in the outgoing Knesset
People of Israel0 (0–4)new list, no seats in the outgoing Knesset
Noam0 (0–0)1 seat in the outgoing Knesset
Reservists–Economic0 (0–4)new list, no seats in the outgoing Knesset

Last Knesset: seats the list's parties held when the outgoing Knesset dissolved on July 17, 2026 (not the 2022 result). New: a list with none.

Updated 02:05 from the count file of 01:51 · Israel time
Last successful check: Oct 29, 02:04 · Next scheduled check: Oct 29, 05:00

Seat projections over time

120610
Netanyahu-led blocAnti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties)Between the blocsArab listsUnclassified lists

Earlier saved records have no comparable numeric projection. They have not been reconstructed.

History data table
Bloc medians · 80% ranges
Time (Israel)Netanyahu-led blocAnti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties)Between the blocsArab listsUnclassified lists
Oct 26, 20:00—————
Oct 26, 21:5253 (50–56)51 (48–54)0 (0–4)15 (13–18)0 (0–0)
Oct 27, 22:3050 (46–53)52 (49–55)0 (0–4)17 (15–20)0 (0–0)
Oct 27, 23:0050 (46–53)52 (49–55)0 (0–4)17 (15–20)0 (0–0)
Oct 27, 23:1950 (46–53)52 (49–55)0 (0–4)18 (15–21)0 (0–0)
Oct 27, 23:2950 (46–54)51 (48–55)0 (0–4)17 (15–21)0 (0–0)
Oct 27, 23:3350 (46–54)51 (48–54)0 (0–4)18 (15–21)0 (0–0)
Oct 27, 23:3650 (46–54)51 (48–54)0 (0–4)18 (15–21)0 (0–0)
Oct 27, 23:4350 (46–54)51 (48–54)0 (0–4)18 (15–21)0 (0–0)
Oct 28, 04:1851 (47–56)49 (46–53)0 (0–4)18 (15–22)0 (0–0)
Oct 28, 19:1251 (47–56)49 (46–53)0 (0–4)18 (15–22)0 (0–0)
Oct 28, 19:3251 (47–56)49 (46–53)0 (0–4)18 (15–22)0 (0–0)

Method and sources

A frozen campaign prior is updated with validated exit polls. Partial counts stay excluded until the count model passes its validation gate. Each simulation allocates 120 seats. Ranges cover the middle 80%; the coherent mosaic point and separate marginal medians answer different questions. These are not probabilities of a government forming.

Saved prior and forecast method →
Last acquisition attempt
Oct 29, 02:05
Last successful check
Oct 29, 02:04
Frozen prior
pre-election-2026-10-25-v3 · Provisional prior · Oct 25, 16:31
Model version
live-v3-joint-blocs · 30,000 Simulations
Channel 12
Source status
Not available
Source publication
Not available
Source checked
Oct 29, 02:04
Channel 13
Source status
Not available
Source publication
Not available
Source checked
Oct 29, 02:04
Kan 11
Source status
Not available
Source publication
Not available
Source checked
Oct 29, 02:04
Central Elections Committee

Official count excluded: counting coverage has not been validated.

Source status
Not available
Source publication
Not available
Source checked
Oct 29, 02:04
Channel 12
Source status
Validated
Source publication
Oct 28, 02:17
Source checked
Oct 29, 02:04
Channel 13
Source status
Validated
Source publication
Oct 28, 01:14
Source checked
Oct 29, 02:04
Kan 11
Source status
Validated
Source publication
Oct 28, 01:40
Source checked
Oct 29, 02:04
Wikipedia (validated broadcaster fallback)
Source status
Validated
Source publication
Not available
Source checked
Oct 29, 02:04

Tonight

Turnout
Turnout was 77.7% when polls closed, the highest since 1999: 5,695,682 voters. Times of Israel, from the Central Elections Committee
What to expect from the count
The count runs through the night and the days after. Soldiers' and other double-envelope votes are counted after the regular ballots and are not expected to be fully counted until Thursday. Exit polls often miss by a seat or two per list, and a list near the 3.25% threshold can still go either way. The Jewish Chronicle
Complaints about ballot slips
During the day Yashar, Yisrael Beiteinu and People of Israel complained of missing, damaged or tampered ballot slips. The Central Elections Committee said: Contrary to claims circulating online, there are currently no indications of systematic tampering with ballot slips. The Jewish Chronicle
What the leaders said
  • Benjamin NetanyahuLikudThe Likud is the biggest party in Israel. The right-wing bloc has a decisive majority. We are still waiting for the true results. Times of Israel
  • Gadi EisenkotYashar!If these are the final results, this is a victory for Israel's responsible Zionist majority. The Jewish Chronicle
  • Gideon Sa'arLikudcalled the opposition's celebrations “premature.” Times of Israel
  • Aryeh DeriShassaid to wait for the real results. Times of Israel
  • Itamar Ben GvirOtzma Yehuditsaid a unity government with Eisenkot would be a mistake. Times of Israel
  • Yair LapidB'YachadDon't let them confuse you: The Netanyahu bloc suffered a harsh defeat. The Jewish Chronicle
  • Naftali BennettB'Yachadsaid Netanyahu had lost, that the bloc's leaders were talking and coordinating, and that he would wait patiently for the real results. ynet
  • Yair GolanThe DemocratsThe public has spoken, it has fired the Netanyahu government. The Jewish Chronicle
  • Avigdor LibermanYisrael Beiteinusaid soldiers' votes could lift Yisrael Beiteinu well above its exit-poll figure, and expects clearer results by Friday. Times of Israel
  • Mansour AbbasRa'amWe'll translate this electoral power into an influential political force. Times of Israel

As reported in English.

Netanyahu bloc, seat 1Netanyahu bloc, seat 2Netanyahu bloc, seat 3Netanyahu bloc, seat 4Netanyahu bloc, seat 5Netanyahu bloc, seat 6Netanyahu bloc, seat 7Netanyahu bloc, seat 8Netanyahu bloc, seat 9Netanyahu bloc, seat 10Netanyahu bloc, seat 11Netanyahu bloc, seat 12Netanyahu bloc, seat 13Netanyahu bloc, seat 14Netanyahu bloc, seat 15Netanyahu bloc, seat 16Netanyahu bloc, seat 17Netanyahu bloc, seat 18Netanyahu bloc, seat 19Netanyahu bloc, seat 20Netanyahu bloc, seat 21Netanyahu bloc, seat 22Netanyahu bloc, seat 23Netanyahu bloc, seat 24Netanyahu bloc, seat 25Netanyahu bloc, seat 26Netanyahu bloc, seat 27Netanyahu bloc, seat 28Netanyahu bloc, seat 29Netanyahu bloc, seat 30Netanyahu bloc, seat 31Netanyahu bloc, seat 32Netanyahu bloc, seat 33Netanyahu bloc, seat 34Netanyahu bloc, seat 35Netanyahu bloc, seat 36Netanyahu bloc, seat 37Netanyahu bloc, seat 38Netanyahu bloc, seat 39Netanyahu bloc, seat 40Netanyahu bloc, seat 41Netanyahu bloc, seat 42Netanyahu bloc, seat 43Netanyahu bloc, seat 44Netanyahu bloc, seat 45Netanyahu bloc, seat 46Netanyahu bloc, seat 47Netanyahu bloc, seat 48Netanyahu bloc, seat 49Netanyahu bloc, seat 50Netanyahu bloc, seat 51Netanyahu bloc, seat 52Netanyahu bloc, seat 53Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 54Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 55Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 56Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 57Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 58Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 59Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 60Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 61Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 62Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 63Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 64Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 65Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 66Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 67Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 68Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 69Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 70Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 71Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 72Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 73Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 74Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 75Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 76Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 77Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 78Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 79Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 80Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 81Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 82Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 83Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 84Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 85Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 86Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 87Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 88Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 89Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 90Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 91Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 92Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 93Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 94Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 95Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 96Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 97Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 98Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 99Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 100Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties), seat 101Joint List and Ra'am, seat 102Joint List and Ra'am, seat 103Joint List and Ra'am, seat 104Joint List and Ra'am, seat 105Joint List and Ra'am, seat 106Joint List and Ra'am, seat 107Joint List and Ra'am, seat 108Joint List and Ra'am, seat 109Joint List and Ra'am, seat 110Joint List and Ra'am, seat 111Joint List and Ra'am, seat 112Joint List and Ra'am, seat 113Joint List and Ra'am, seat 114Joint List and Ra'am, seat 115Joint List and Ra'am, seat 116Joint List and Ra'am, seat 117Joint List and Ra'am, seat 118Joint List and Ra'am, seat 119Joint List and Ra'am, seat 12061
  • Netanyahu bloc 53
  • Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties) 48
  • Between the blocs 0
  • Joint List and Ra'am 19

The count describes ballots reported so far, not a representative sample of the remaining votes. An estimate of the final 120 seats is a different figure.

Voter roll in the localities counted 100.0%

5,134,244 valid votes from 1,207 regular localities and any included double envelopes; turnout 71.8% among counted regular localities. The share is against the 2022 roll (6,788,804 eligible) until the committee publishes its 2026 total.

Build a coalition from these results

By list

ListLast KnessetSeatsLettersVotesShareSeatsFinal poll averageDifference
Likud36 seats in the outgoing Knesset (Likud 32 + New Hope 4)26מחל1,060,86520.66%2622.5+3.5
Yashar!new list, no seats in the outgoing Knesset21דרך832,43316.21%2121.2−0.2
Joint List5 seats in the outgoing Knesset (Hadash 3 + Ta'al 2)12ודם471,9779.19%128.4+3.6
B'Yachad24 seats in the outgoing Knesset12רק463,7239.03%1212.8−0.8
The Democrats4 seats in the outgoing Knesset8אמת334,7056.52%88.6−0.6
Ra'am5 seats in the outgoing Knesset7עם311,2426.06%75.6+1.4
Yisrael Beiteinu6 seats in the outgoing Knesset7ל304,9665.94%77.00
UTJ7 seats in the outgoing Knesset (Degel HaTorah 4 + Agudat Yisrael 3)7ג290,0355.65%77.5−0.5
Otzma Yehudit6 seats in the outgoing Knesset7ב283,8825.53%77.8−0.8
Shas11 seats in the outgoing Knesset7שס271,9085.30%77.9−0.9
Religious Zionism–Zehut7 seats in the outgoing Knesset6ט241,3124.70%66.7−0.7
Reservists–Economicnew list, no seats in the outgoing Knessetbelow thresholdדי135,0132.63%below threshold4.0−4.0
People of Israelnew list, no seats in the outgoing Knessetbelow thresholdך82,3121.60%below thresholdbelow threshold0
Noam1 seat in the outgoing Knessetbelow thresholdני7,7690.15%below threshold–Awaiting count
Blue and White8 seats in the outgoing Knessetbelow thresholdכן50.00%below threshold–Awaiting count
Other lists (23)–42,0970.82%–––

Last Knesset: seats the list's parties held when the outgoing Knesset dissolved on July 17, 2026 (not the 2022 result). New: a list with none.

Threshold: 166,863 votes (3.25% of valid votes counted so far). Final poll average: this site's average of the latest 9 polls, through Oct 23, 2026; the difference is seats in the count minus that average. Source: Central Elections Committee, results by locality.

Changes since the previous saved count

Compared with the count captured : +9,049 valid votes. A decrease can reflect a corrected count. These are changes between two saved counts, not an official change log.

ListVote changeEstimated seat change
The Democrats+9050
Otzma Yehudit+3050
בד+30
בי+60
בקר+10
UTJ+250
ד+30
Reservists–Economic+2620
Yashar!+2,2020
ה+10
Joint List+6850
ז+10
זך+20
זץ+10
Religious Zionism–Zehut+1890
יק+10
People of Israel+1160
Yisrael Beiteinu+5810
Likud+1,6190
Noam+20
נקי+10
Ra'am+6220
צדק+60
צף+20
ק+20
קה+20
קך+10
B'Yachad+1,2770
Shas+2260

The threshold

3.25% of valid votes counted so far is 166,863 votes. A list below it gets no seats; its votes are not transferred. Seats are allocated among the lists that passed.

No list is within half a point of the threshold in the votes counted so far.

How votes become seats

  1. Lists with fewer than 3.25% of valid votes get no seats. Their votes are not transferred.
  2. The 120 seats are shared among the remaining lists in proportion to their votes, by the Bader-Ofer method.
  3. Two lists that signed a surplus-vote agreement compete for leftover seats as if they were one list, then split what they win. This can affect leftover-seat allocation. Provisional assumptions here (reported signed; official filing unverified): Yashar! and The Democrats; B'Yachad and Yisrael Beiteinu; Joint List and Ra'am; Likud and Religious Zionism–Zehut; Shas and UTJ.
  4. 61 seats is an absolute majority. Initial confidence requires more votes for than against, excluding abstentions; constructive no-confidence requires 61 MKs to support an alternative government. IDI explanation; Basic Law: Government.

Knesset Elections Law, s. 81: 3.25% of valid votes. Agreements: Yashar! and The Democrats, Times of Israel, Sep 10, 2026; official: Central Elections Committee notice under s. 67(c), Yalkut HaPirsumim 15045 p. 1098, Oct 19, 2026 (https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/guide/candidates-lists-26/he/yp15045.pdf); B'Yachad and Yisrael Beiteinu, Times of Israel, Sep 10, 2026; official: Central Elections Committee notice under s. 67(c), Yalkut HaPirsumim 15045 p. 1098, Oct 19, 2026 (https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/guide/candidates-lists-26/he/yp15045.pdf); Joint List and Ra'am, Walla, Sep 12, 2026 (signed Sep 11); Ynet, Sep 11; Jerusalem Post, Sep 13; official: Central Elections Committee notice under s. 67(c), Yalkut HaPirsumim 15045 p. 1098, Oct 19, 2026 (https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/guide/candidates-lists-26/he/yp15045.pdf); Likud and Religious Zionism–Zehut, Signed Oct 6 (Times of Israel); official: Central Elections Committee notice under s. 67(c), Yalkut HaPirsumim 15045 p. 1098, Oct 19, 2026 (https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/guide/candidates-lists-26/he/yp15045.pdf); Shas and UTJ, Signed Oct 11 (Jerusalem Post); official: Central Elections Committee notice under s. 67(c), Yalkut HaPirsumim 15045 p. 1098, Oct 19, 2026 (https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/guide/candidates-lists-26/he/yp15045.pdf). Seat estimates use the five surplus-vote agreements the Central Elections Committee published in the Official Gazette on Oct 19, 2026 (Yalkut HaPirsumim 15045, p. 1098): Yashar–The Democrats, B'Yachad–Yisrael Beiteinu, Joint List–Ra'am, Likud–Religious Zionism, Shas–UTJ. A sixth pair of fringe lists is not modelled. Otzma Yehudit, Amcha Yisrael, the Reservists, Blue and White and Noam filed none. Verified against the gazette Oct 23.

How the exit polls did

Exit polls by list

Seats for each list in each channel's latest exit poll
ListKan 11updated 01:40 Israel timeChannel 12updated 02:17 Israel timeChannel 13updated 01:14 Israel timeCount so far91% of expected votes countedLast Knesset
Likud2727272636 seats in the outgoing Knesset (Likud 32 + New Hope 4)
Yashar!21212221new list, no seats in the outgoing Knesset
B'Yachad1312131224 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Joint List111211125 seats in the outgoing Knesset (Hadash 3 + Ta'al 2)
The Democrats99984 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Yisrael Beiteinu87776 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Otzma Yehudit66676 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Shas676711 seats in the outgoing Knesset
UTJ66677 seats in the outgoing Knesset (Degel HaTorah 4 + Agudat Yisrael 3)
Ra'am77775 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Religious Zionism–Zehut66667 seats in the outgoing Knesset
People of Israelbelow thresholdbelow thresholdbelow thresholdbelow thresholdnew list, no seats in the outgoing Knesset
Reservists–Economicbelow thresholdbelow thresholdbelow thresholdbelow thresholdnew list, no seats in the outgoing Knesset
Blocs
Netanyahu bloc5152515368 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties)5149514842 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Between the blocs00000 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Joint List and Ra'am1819181910 seats in the outgoing Knesset

Last Knesset: seats the list's parties held when the outgoing Knesset dissolved on July 17, 2026 (not the 2022 result). New: a list with none.

Exit polls are estimates from interviews at polling stations, and they are often off by a few seats per list. The official count decides.

Channel 14 and i24NEWS (not in our forecast)

Seats for each list in each channel's latest exit poll
ListChannel 14aired 22:00 Israel timei24NEWSaired 22:00 Israel timeLast Knesset
Likud302736 seats in the outgoing Knesset (Likud 32 + New Hope 4)
Yashar!1920new list, no seats in the outgoing Knesset
B'Yachad111524 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Joint List1095 seats in the outgoing Knesset (Hadash 3 + Ta'al 2)
Shas9811 seats in the outgoing Knesset
The Democrats994 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Otzma Yehudit776 seats in the outgoing Knesset
UTJ777 seats in the outgoing Knesset (Degel HaTorah 4 + Agudat Yisrael 3)
Religious Zionism–Zehut767 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Ra'am775 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Yisrael Beiteinu456 seats in the outgoing Knesset
People of Israelbelow thresholdnot reportednew list, no seats in the outgoing Knesset
Reservists–Economicbelow thresholdbelow thresholdnew list, no seats in the outgoing Knesset
Blocs
Netanyahu bloc605568 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Anti-Netanyahu bloc (Zionist parties)434942 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Between the blocs000 seats in the outgoing Knesset
Joint List and Ra'am171610 seats in the outgoing Knesset

Download CSV with sources: Results by list, Polls, Forecast