Forecast
Data as of 2026-10-27T02:00:44.663Z. Open the selected view.
Frozen before the vote
50000 runs. scripts/forecast/model.mjs (version 3); docs/research/polls-method/2026-10-23-forecast-algorithm.md
| List | Forecast seats | Range low | Range high | Chance of passing the threshold (%) | Source | Source link | Retrieved at | Licence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yashar! | 22 | 18 | 26 | 100 | Israel Votes forecast | https://www.israelvotes.org/forecast | 2026-10-27T02:00:44.663Z | Source rights stay with the source; this compilation CC BY-NC 4.0, credit israelvotes.org |
| Likud | 21 | 16 | 25 | 100 | Israel Votes forecast | https://www.israelvotes.org/forecast | 2026-10-27T02:00:44.663Z | Source rights stay with the source; this compilation CC BY-NC 4.0, credit israelvotes.org |
| B'Yachad | 13 | 10 | 15 | 100 | Israel Votes forecast | https://www.israelvotes.org/forecast | 2026-10-27T02:00:44.663Z | Source rights stay with the source; this compilation CC BY-NC 4.0, credit israelvotes.org |
| Shas | 9 | 7 | 11 | 100 | Israel Votes forecast | https://www.israelvotes.org/forecast | 2026-10-27T02:00:44.663Z | Source rights stay with the source; this compilation CC BY-NC 4.0, credit israelvotes.org |
| The Democrats | 9 | 7 | 11 | 100 | Israel Votes forecast | https://www.israelvotes.org/forecast | 2026-10-27T02:00:44.663Z | Source rights stay with the source; this compilation CC BY-NC 4.0, credit israelvotes.org |
| Joint List | 9 | 6 | 13 | 99.8 | Israel Votes forecast | https://www.israelvotes.org/forecast | 2026-10-27T02:00:44.663Z | Source rights stay with the source; this compilation CC BY-NC 4.0, credit israelvotes.org |
| Otzma Yehudit | 8 | 6 | 10 | 99.9 | Israel Votes forecast | https://www.israelvotes.org/forecast | 2026-10-27T02:00:44.663Z | Source rights stay with the source; this compilation CC BY-NC 4.0, credit israelvotes.org |
| UTJ | 8 | 6 | 10 | 99.8 | Israel Votes forecast | https://www.israelvotes.org/forecast | 2026-10-27T02:00:44.663Z | Source rights stay with the source; this compilation CC BY-NC 4.0, credit israelvotes.org |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 8 | 6 | 10 | 99.9 | Israel Votes forecast | https://www.israelvotes.org/forecast | 2026-10-27T02:00:44.663Z | Source rights stay with the source; this compilation CC BY-NC 4.0, credit israelvotes.org |
| Religious Zionism–Zehut | 7 | 5 | 9 | 99.2 | Israel Votes forecast | https://www.israelvotes.org/forecast | 2026-10-27T02:00:44.663Z | Source rights stay with the source; this compilation CC BY-NC 4.0, credit israelvotes.org |
| Ra'am | 6 | 4 | 8 | 97.3 | Israel Votes forecast | https://www.israelvotes.org/forecast | 2026-10-27T02:00:44.663Z | Source rights stay with the source; this compilation CC BY-NC 4.0, credit israelvotes.org |
| People of Israel | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12.4 | Israel Votes forecast | https://www.israelvotes.org/forecast | 2026-10-27T02:00:44.663Z | Source rights stay with the source; this compilation CC BY-NC 4.0, credit israelvotes.org |
| Noam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | Israel Votes forecast | https://www.israelvotes.org/forecast | 2026-10-27T02:00:44.663Z | Source rights stay with the source; this compilation CC BY-NC 4.0, credit israelvotes.org |
| Reservists–Economic | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15.6 | Israel Votes forecast | https://www.israelvotes.org/forecast | 2026-10-27T02:00:44.663Z | Source rights stay with the source; this compilation CC BY-NC 4.0, credit israelvotes.org |
Sources and attribution
- scripts/forecast/model.mjs (version 3); docs/research/polls-method/2026-10-23-forecast-algorithm.md: https://www.israelvotes.org/forecast
Original site text: CC BY-NC 4.0, with credit to Rabbi Daniel Bogard and israelvotes.org. Third-party source material retains its own rights.